Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez vs Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. Betting Odds and Prediction

By Boxing

Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez vs Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. Preview May 6th

Lineal Middleweight Champion Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez will be taking on Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. in an all-Mexican showdown this Saturday, May 6th at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The 12-round bout will be fought at a catchweight of 164.5 lbs. and can be seen live in North America on the HBO pay-per-view platform. Fans in Britain can catch the action live on BoxNation and BT Sport. Alvarez last fought in September when he stopped Liam Smith in the ninth round for the WBO Jr. Middleweight Title while Chavez beat Dominik Britsch by a 10-round unanimous decision in December.

Alvarez vs Chavez Jr. Betting Odds

Here are the betting odds from online sportsbook (full review here).

  • Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. +470
  • Saul Alvarez -620

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My Pick

The 26-year-old Alvarez has an excellent record of 48-1-1 along with 34 Kos. His only loss was a majority decision to Floyd Mayweather in September of 2013 while his draw was a four-round affair against Jorge Juarez back in 2006. Alvarez stands 5-feet-9-inches tall and has a reach of 70.5 inches. He has a wealth of experience for his age since he turned pro when he was just 15 years old in 2005 and has 341rounds under his belt since then.

Alvarez has taken on and beaten some tough opponents over the years such as Amir Khan, Miguel Cotto, James Kirkland, Austin Trout, Erislandy Lara, Shane Mosley, Josesito Lopez, Kermit Cintron, Carlos Baldomir, and Alfredo Angulo. However, while he’s the lineal middleweight champion, he hasn’t really fought a top middleweight as of yet as he’s been fighting below the 160 lb. limit or at catchweights. This time he’s going above the middleweight limit at 164.5 lbs.

Alvarez has above-average power and enters the fight with a current knockout ratio of 68 per cent. He also owns a granite chin and quick hands, but as Mayweather and Khan to some degree showed, he can be outboxed as he has difficulty handling a quick, stiff jab. Alvarez is a good boxer-puncher who likes to go to the body, but has a bit of difficulty with boxers who move and it looks like Chavez has been hand-picked as an opponent.

The 31-year-old Chavez is known to gain weight and focus more on his out-of-ring activities and lifestyle than he does on training. But since he’s well-known in Mexico with Julio Cesar Chavez being his famous father, he fits the bill as a live opponent for Alvarez. However, Alvarez may have made a mistake here since this fight could be just the motivation Chavez needs to take boxing seriously and get his career back on track. And it could come at the expense of Alvarez.

Chavez isn’t as good as he was a few years ago and the former WBC Middleweight Champion has had problems outside of the ring. He was banned nine months and fined $900,000 in 2013 for testing positive for an illegal substance, but still has a fine record of 50-2-1 along with 32 Kos. His two losses were a unanimous decision to former WBC Middleweight Champion Sergio Martinez of Argentina in September of 2012 and a ninth-round stoppage at the hands of Andrzej Fonfara in April of 2015.

However, Chavez had Martinez down and in deep trouble in the last round in their title fight before the bell arguably saved Martinez. Against Fonfara though, Chavez suffered a bit of a beating. Chavez might have to eventually move up to the 175 lb light heavyweight division after having trouble making the weight in the super middleweight and middleweight divisions and that’s another reason Alvarez has chosen to fight him, since Chavez may be physically drained after making weight.

Chavez is a pretty big guy as he stands 6-feet-1-inch tall with a 73-inch reach and has 293 rounds under his belt since turning pro back in 2003. He has pretty good power in his fists with a current knockout ratio of 59 per cent. He’s a powerful boxer with a pretty solid chin and is hard to keep at bay when he lets his hands go. Most of his knockouts come on an accumulation of blows rather than just once punch and he’s relentless when at his best.

Chavez will apply pressure to the body and head and keep moving forward until he eventually breaks his opponent down. His biggest wins so far have been over Brian Vera (twice), Andy Lee, Marco Antonio Rubio, Peter Manfredo Jr. and John Duddy. He also fought to a six-round draw with Carlos Molina in 2005. Chavez needs to pressure Alvarez from bell to bell and force Canelo to fight all three minutes of very round.


Chavez has lost some speed and his dedication to the sport has been questioned. However, he’s quite a bit bigger than Alvarez and the weight of the two men when they enter the ring could be a big factor in this fight. Alvarez struggles against opponents with fast hands and feet and with superior boxing skills, but Chavez doesn’t fit that bill. There will be a lot of pride on the line here and Alvarez may have underestimated Chavez. A Chavez win shouldn’t be a surprise here, but the 164.5 lb. weight limit may drain him too much so I’ll go with Alvarez in a tough fight.

A close fight so there should be a lot of betting action on both guys.

Play: Alvarez -620 @

Check out my recent boxing betting picks to see my current form

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