Erislandy Lara vs Michael Zerafa Betting Odds and Prediction

By Boxing

Erislandy Lara vs Michael Zerafa Preview March 30th, 2024

WBA regular Middleweight Champion Erislandy Lara of Cuba takes on Michael Zerafa of Australia in Las Vegas, Nevada this Saturday, March 30th. The 12-rounder can be seen live in most nations on pay-per-view including on Triller on the undercard of the Tim Tzsyu vs Sebastian Fundora tilt. Lara won the vacant title by stopping Thomas Lamanna in just 80 seconds in May, 2021 and has defended it just once by stopping Gary O’Sullivan in the eight round in May, 2022. Zerafa last saw action in November, 2022 when he beat Daniel Creati by an eight-round unanimous decision. With both boxers not having fought since 2022 it’s hard to see why Lara still has a belt and why Zerafa is getting a shot at it.

Lara vs Zerafa Betting Odds

Here are the betting odds from online sportsbook (full review here).

  • Michael Zerafa +250
  • Erislandy Lara -325

My Pick

The soon-to-be 41-year-old Lara is a southpaw who now fights out of Houston, Texas. He climbs into the ring at 29-3-3 with 16 Ko’s under his belt. He’s elusive with a lot of boxing skills but doesn’t have too much in the way of one-punch power even though 58.6 per cent of his victories have come by stoppage. He’s halted his last two opponents but has gone the distance in three of his last seven outings. Lara stands just 5-feet-9-inches tall with a 75-inch wingspan and is also a former IBO and WBA Junior Middleweight champion.

He won the IBO belt by beating Delvin Rodriguez via unanimous decision in June, 2015 sand captured the interim WBA title in June, 2013 by stopping Alfredo Angulo in the 10th round after being dropped in the fourth and ninth rounds. He defended his belts against the likes of Yuri Foreman, Vanes Martirosyan, Delvin Rodriguez, Ishe Smith and Jan Zaveck.

Meanwhile, Lara’s three defeats have all been controversial and came at the hands of former champ Jarrett Hurd by split decision in April, 2018, to Paul Williams by majority decision in 2011 and a split decision to Saul Alvarez in 2014. He also fought to a nine-round technical decision draw with Vanes Martirosyan in 2012, a 10-round majority draw with Carlos Molina a year earlier and a 12-round draw with Brian Castano in 2019 .

Lara is an excellent technical boxer and his power may be a bit underrated. He’s boxed 234 rounds since turning pro in 2008. Before that he enjoyed an excellent amateur career in which he won numerous titles, including three straight national crowns in Cuba as a welterweight. He has a bit of an awkward style but has become more fan friendly lately by letting his hands go and throwing more power shots. He’s sometimes dominant, too defensive and hard to hit and that can lead to boring fights.

The 31-year-old Zerafa of Melbourne was a relative unknown until stepping into the ring with former world champion Kell Brook in December, 2018. He showed a lot of heart but dropped a 12-round unanimous decision in England. Zerafa was also stopped by former world champ Peter Quillin in the fifth round in September of 2015 on a nationally-televised bout in North America. Zerafa measures 5-feet-11-inches tall with a 71.5-inch wingspan which gives him a two-inch edge in height but a 3.5 -inch reach disadvantage against Lara.

He climbs into the ring with a mark of 31-4 with 19 Kos and has fought 212 rounds since turning pro back in 2011. He’s not a huge puncher either but 61.3 per cent of his wins have been by stoppage, including three of his past four. Zerafa also gained a lot of worldwide recognition with his two bouts against former world champion Jeff Horn as he stopped him in the ninth round in 2019 but lost a 10-round majority decision in the rematch. His other pro loss was a unanimous decision at the hands of Arif Magomedov in October, 2014.

He’s won several regional and minor titles as a pro and has beaten Anthony Mundine and Isaac Hardman, but other than Horn, Quillin and Brook it’s pretty hard to recognize any of his other opponents. As a pro, he’s captured several regional titles including the WBA Oceania Light Middleweight Title, the Commonwealth (British Empire) Light Middleweight Title, the IBF Pan Pacific Middleweight Title, the WBC Asian Boxing Council Continental Light Middleweight Title, and the the Australia – Victoria State Light Middleweight Title.


Both boxers will likely have some ring rust to get through. Zerafa is a 10 years younger than Lara but lacks his experience and overall boxing skills. Still, he has a lot of heart and has an outside chance of winning this. But while he may give Lara all he can handle, I’m still expecting Lara’s experience to pull him through as he has way more experience against top-level opponents and owns a solid chin.

Lara’s a level above Zerafa.

Play Lara -325 @

Check out my recent boxing betting picks to see my current form.

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