Nonito Donaire vs Alexandro Santiago Betting Odds and Prediction

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Nonito Donaire vs Alexandro Santiago Preview July 29th, 2023

Note: This fight has been pushed back two weeks from July 15th to July 29th and can be seen on the undercard of the Errol Spence Jr vs Terence Crawford event.

Former four-weight world champion Nonito Donaire of the Philippines is back in the ring on Saturday, July 29th as he takes on Alexandro Santiago of Mexico for the vacant WBC Bantamweight Title. The 12-round bout from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada can be seen live in America on Showtime Pay Per View. Fans in the UK can catch the action on TNT Sports (formerly BT Sport). Donaire last fought in June, 2022 when he lost the WBC title to Naoya Inoue in their rematch when he was stopped in the second round. Inoue beat Donaire by 12-round unanimous decision in a classic in their first meeting in 2019 in the final of the World Boxing Super Series. Santiago last saw action in October when he stopped Antonio Nieves in the seventh round in a rematch after they fought to a 10-round draw in 2016 for Nieves’ WBO NABO Bantamweight Title.

Donaire vs Santiago Betting Odds

Here are the betting odds from online sportsbook (full review here).

  • Alexandro Santiago +125
  • Nonito Donaire -155

My Pick

The 40-year-old ‘Filipino Flash’ Donaire bounced back with wins over Ryan Burnett in 2018 for the WBA belt and Stephon Young in 2019 in the World Boxing Super Series after dropping a unanimous decision to Carl Frampton in a shot at the vacant interim WBO Featherweight crown in April, 2018. He then lost that WBA Title to Naoya Inoue in 2019.

He rebounded from the defeat to Inoue with a magnificent performance against Nordine Oubaali in May, 2021 and dropped him three times before the fight was stopped in the fourth round to win the WBC Bantamweight Belt. He successfully defended it six months later against fellow countryman Reymart Gaballo by stopping him in the fourth round. However, he then lost the belt against Inoue in his last outing in June of last year.

After his most recent action, Donaire’s record now stands at 42-7 with 28 Ko’s. He’s a former amateur star who moved to America as a youngster and is 17-6 with 11 Ko’s in world title fights. He’s also a four-division World Champion as he’s held titles in the flyweight, bantamweight, super bantamweight and featherweight divisions.

Donaire, who fights out of Las Vegas, has also captured numerous regional and minor titles since turning pro in 2001 and has boxed 299 rounds since then with a current knockout ratio of 57.1 per cent. His biggest wins have been over Gaballo, Oubaali, Burnett, Vic Darchinyan (twice), Hernan Marquez, Fernando Montiel, Omar Narvaez, Wilfredo Vazquez Jr., Jeffrey Mathebula, Toshiaki Nishioka, and Jorge Arce.

His losses have come at the hands of Inoue (twice), Carl Frampton in 2018, Jessie Magdaleno in 2016, Guillermo Rigondeaux in 2013, Nicholas Walters in 2014 and Rosendo Sanchez in his second pro bout in 2001. The only men to stop him were Inoue in 2022 and Walters in the sixth round, but Donaire’s proven over the years to have a pretty solid chin. He stands 5-feet-7-inches tall with a 68.5-inch reach and will be attempting to break his own record of becoming the oldest bantamweight champion in history. He set the mark by winning the belt as the age of 38.

The 27-year-old Santiago climbs through the ropes with a mark of 27-3-5 with 14 Ko’s and has gone a total of 205 rounds since turning pro in 2012. He’s giving up 4.5-inches in height and three inches in reach to Donaire as he measured just over 5-feet-2-inches tall with a 65.5-inch wingspan. When it comes to power, he’s not really a big threat as his current knockout ratio clocks in at 40 per cent and he’s stopped three of his last seven opponents. He likes to apply a lot of pressure though while firing off his jab and combinations and has a nice overhand right and left hook.

Santiago’s three defeats came at the hands of Hector Flores Calixto by six-round unanimous decision in 2013 after being dropped in the first round; to Johnny Michel Garcia by six-round split decision in 2014 and to Gary Antonio Russell by 10-round majority decision in 2021. His five draws were: four rounds against Hector Flores Calixto in 2013; 10 rounds against Antonio Nieves in 2016; eight rounds against Jose Martinez-Mercado in 2016 and 10 rounds against Martinez-Mercado in a rematch in 2018 for the WBO NABO Super Flyweight Title and 12 rounds against Jerwin Ancajas in 2018 in a shot at the IBF Super Flyweight Title.

This means Santiago has lost just one of his last 24 fights and that was the majority decision to Russell in 2021. he won the vacant WBC International Bantamweight Title in 2019 when he stopped Roberto Cantu in the eighth round and captured the vacant Mexican Super Bantamweight Belt last July with a 10-round unanimous decision over David Carmona. He also has wins over Samuel Medina, alfredo Mejia Vargas, Andres Guzman and Juan Ramirez Marquez.


Donaire is a future hall of famer looked looked sensational in his wins over Nordine Oubaali and Reymart Gaballo but was brought back to earth by Naoya Inoue. He still possesses great counterpunching ability and decisive power as his last four wins have all come by stoppage. It’s hard to grade his chin right now though as Inoue as been knocking out just about everybody in his current reign of terror. Santiago gives up a lot of height and reach and will need to work his way inside to be effective. He’s a sturdy boxer with enough power to cause some damage but lacks Donaire’s speed and overall boxing ability. Still, he’s 13 years younger and is just as motivated as the former champion thanks to the recent birth of his son. This is a tossup for me as I can see some logic in why either boxer will take the vacant title. No result will be surprising but I’ll give Donaire the slight edge due to his experience, power resurgence, size and overall speed and ability.

Donaire’s experience and size should be the difference.

Play: Donaire -155 @

Check out my recent boxing betting picks to see my current form.

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