The last game of the divisional playoff weekend is the one I see the most value in. The Denver Broncos are huge favorites in this one against their divisional rival Chargers, and currently sit with around a -9 point spread at most online bookies. They are also only paying out at about 1/4, which means most bookies have them winning this game about 80% of the time.
I look at this and see a great opportunity to bet against the Broncos in either of these bets.
Chargers vs Broncos Free Pick
The Chargers just squeaked into the playoffs with a 9-7 record. They actually had to win their last 4 regular season games just to reach that record and have a chance, which they did. They then followed that up with a big road win over the Bengals, who were big favourites. They didn’t just beat the Bengals, but they destroyed them by a score of 27-10. When the Chargers were 6-7 they were given no shot of making the playoffs because their next game was against guess who….the Denver Broncos in Denver. San Diego went to Denver and kept the ball out of Peyton Mannings hands en route to a 27-20 win. Since then they defeated the Raiders, Chiefs and Bengals, both of the latter being very tough opposition. This is a different Chargers team at this point in the season and I think they are being overlooked by the oddsmakers in this one.
Peyton actually has a losing record in the playoffs if you can believe that. With all his regular season success he has a hard time winning in the post season and his teams sometimes find ways to lose. Exhibit A is the loss to the Ravens last year when the game was basically over late in the fourth. The fact that Denver did lose to these same Chargers earlier in the season and Peytons lack of success in the playoffs could trickle into his mind late in this game. Add in the fact that the Chargers will likely try to run the clock a lot and keep the ball out of Mannings hands and this could be a tough game for the Broncos quarterback.
Denver does have a crazy offense that can win by bunches of points, but if the Chargers are able to execute the same way they did in week 15 they should at least be able to keep this game close. Then late in the fourth we will see what kind of Peyton is playing.
I like the Chargers in this one both by the spread and the money line.
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