Kansas City Chiefs +9 @ San Diego Chargers Week 9 – Total play O/U 43
The San Diego Chargers (3-4 straight up, 3-4 against the spread) are mired in a three game losing streak placing their coach Norv Turner on a red hot seat. Luckily for them they play in the AFC West and sit only one game back of division leading Denver.
The Chargers are only a few weeks removed from being victimized by Peyton Manning who lead the Broncos back from a 24-0 half-time deficit to complete the 4th biggest comeback in NFL regular season history. With that loss the Chargers also blew an opportunity to take a two game lead in the AFC West circuit.
With their most recent loss in Cleveland this past Sunday, what once seemed like a promising season is getting ugly fast. In spite of having the bye-week to prepare for an underrated Cleveland team, the Chargers were only able to muster two field-goals in a 7-6 loss.
Rivers completed 18-of-34 passes for 154 yards. Understudy running back Ronnie Brown was his favorite target, hauling in seven receptions for 85 yards. Ryan Mathews rushed for 95 yards on 24 carries.
Kansas City (1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS) has lost four straight, counting last week’s 26-16 defeat to Oakland as one-point home ‘chalk’. Back-up QB Brady Quinn suffered a concussion in the first half and was replaced by former starter Matt Cassel.
The Raiders carried a two-touchdown advantage halfway through the third frame and rolled to a comfortable win. Cassel found Dexter McCluster for a 10-yard scoring throw in trash time to make the final score closer than the game actually was. The 42 collective points remained ‘under’ the 42 ½-point total.
Cassel completed 20-of-30 passes for 218 yards with one TD, one interception and one lost fumble. He has a 6/10 TD-INT ratio.
KC running back Jamaal Charles has run for a team-leading 595 yards and two touchdowns, but he was given a season-low five carries last week against the Raiders. Charles is averaging 5.0 yards per carry.
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers Under 43 (betting prediction)
The Chiefs are big road dogs headed into Thursday night and for good reason; they’re awful. They are the only team to not hold a lead at any time through the first eight weeks of action (They’re only win came on a last-second game winning touchdown). It is tough to take the points with such a terrible record of performance but there is a solid trend that KC has already benefitted from this year: teams suffering back-to-back double digit defeats are a perfect 3-0 ATS this year.
It is also difficult to justify wagering money on the Chargers. San Diego has shown the relationship between players and coaching staff is dysfunctional at best, making a wager on them a very risky endeavour.
The only thing left is to play the total. 4 of the last 5 of these meetings have gone under the posted total over the last 3 years. The Chargers have been a highly efficient offense in the NFL for a long time, but they currently sit at 25th in total offense, while their defense sits uncharacteristically at 10th surrendering only 20.6 points per game. Kansas City cannot score the ball on offense; they are averaging 16.8 points per game, and a mind-boggling 5.9 points in the first half.
Norv Turner’s team is 13-7 to the ‘under’ since last year, while the Chiefs are 14-8 in their last 22 games. This game looks to be a tight divisional battle between two teams having a difficult time scoring. I predict a 20-12 win for the Chargers.
Play: Under 43 (-118) 5Dimes.eu
I’m 4-0 on teasers over the last two weeks. My first teaser play this week is KC +16/Under 49.5
Record on single game plays: 3-1
You can find the above odds listed at 5dimes.eu.