Mark Hunt vs Roy Nelson UFC Fight Night Japan Betting Prediction


UFC Fight Night 52It’s a fight that every UFC fan has been asking to see for the past few years.  Two hard hitting, overweight men who are going to go out and try to get a knock out before they get KO’d themselves.  The look of Mark Hunt and Roy Nelson and their ability to throw power punches that puts their opponents to sleep makes this fight look like something you would see in a backyard brawl.  But the truth is that these two men are right on the verge of breaking into the top 5 in the Heavyweight division and really making a push towards a title shot.  You could realistically say that the winner of this fight may only have to win 1 more fight against a top opponent to be right in line for a title shot and a chance to be the baddest man on the planet.

The only complaint I have with this fight is it will be showing in North America at about 5am EST this morning.  That said replays are always available and I’m sure there will be some huge highlights to keep us coming back.

Hunt vs Nelson Betting Pick

I’m using 5Dimes to look at the odds for this fight.  Click here to visit and see all of the betting options for yourself and place your wagers.

  • Roy Nelson +105
  • Mark Hunt -115

There are the odds for who will win the fight.  As you can see this fight is as close to a pick’em as you’ll probably see in the UFC.

Now on to some prop bets where I think you can really find some value:

  • Nelson wins inside distance +183
  • Hunt wins inside distance +150
  • Nelson wins in round 1 +450
  • Nelson wins in round 2 +750
  • Hunt wins in round 1 +400
  • Hunt wins in round 2 +650
  • Nelson wins by TKO/KO +245
  • Hunt wins by TKO/KO +155
  • Nelson wins by Submission +1000
  • Hunt wins by Submission +3000

There are just a few of the betting options available on this fight at 5Dimes.  You can also bet against any of those outcomes happening.  At 5Dimes right now you can bet on the round the fight will end in, which fighter will win in each round, the method of victory, and much more.  I just want to look at this fight and some of these odds.

To kick things off, I personally like Nelson to win this fight.  Continue reading to find out why or check out for a second opinion.

First of all, I personally don’t think that Roy Nelson should be an underdog in this fight.  He’s coming off an easy win over Big Nog and he has a stronger record in the UFC than Mark Hunt.  Nelson is 7-5 in the UFC with all wins coming via knockout and all losses coming via decision.  These losses have come to Daniel Cormier, Stipe Miocic, Fabricio Werdum, Frank Mir and Junior Dos Santos.  4 of those 5 guys are still ranked in the top 5 of their current divisions and when Frank Mir beat Nelson he was on a hot streak that ended with him getting a title shot.  So basically if Nelson loses, it could very well be his worst loss in the UFC.

Next look at the opponents that both Hunt and Nelson have had….

Stefan Struve:

  • Mark Hunt knocks him out in 3rd round, 1:44.
  • Roy Nelson knocks him out 1st round, 0:39.

Cheick Kongo:

  • Mark Hunt knocks him out 1st round, 2:11.
  • Roy Nelson knocks him out 1st round, 2:03.

Nelson made quicker work of both of these fighters.

Add in the fact that Mark Hunt was knocked out by JDS, who Nelson fought for 3 full rounds, and you see that it is possible to KO the Super Samoan.

Next you look at the Bigfoot Silva fight with Mark Hunt, that really bumped him up the rankings even though it was just a draw and you now realize that Silva has dropped an easy fight to Arlovski and you don’t think that is quite as impressive anymore.

I don’t see Hunt knocking out Roy Nelson.  If Hunt wins this fight it’s going to be a decision victory, but I don’t see this fight going to decision.

I like Nelson to finish Hunt in this fight.  I think it will be by a knockout, but Nelson also has a much better ground game and he could go that route if he feels like he is being outclassed on his feet.  For this reason these are my two favourite bets on this huge fight:

Play: Nelson inside distance +183 & Not Hunt via TKO/KO -195 (


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