William Zepeda vs Mercito Gesta Betting Odds and Prediction

By Boxing

William Zepeda vs Mercito Gesta Preview September 16th, 2023

Unbeaten William Zepeda of Mexico returns to the ring in a 12-round lightweight tilt against Mercito Gesta of the Philippines this Saturday, September 16th. The fight from Commerce, California can be seen live in most nations on DAZN. Zepeda took care of Jamie Arboleda via a second-round TKO in April in his most recent outing while Gesta edged former world champion Joseph Diaz by a 10-round split decision in his last contest in March.

**Watch live on DAZN this Saturday.  Your first month is free.

Zepeda vs Gesta Betting Odds

Here are the betting odds from online sportsbook BetOnline.ag (full review here).

  • Mercito Gesta +1000
  • William Zepeda -2000

My Pick

The 27-year-old Zepeda is a southpaw who enters the ring with a perfect mark of 28-0 with 24 big Ko’s. He’s obviously made a name for himself due to his impressive power as he carries around a knockout ratio of 85.7 per cent. He’s boxed 125 rounds since making his pro debut in 2015 following his amateur career which saw him fight in the World Series of Boxing and has fought past six rounds just twice, which came two of his last three outings against former world champions Rene Alvarado and Joseph Diaz.

Zepeda, who stands 5-feet-9-inches tall with a 69.5-inch reach, stepped up in class in those two fights but beat Diaz by a wide 12-round unanimous decision and Alvarado by a 10-round unanimous nod. His biggest wins before that came against the likes of Jose Fierros, Jesus Zazueta, Jose Rosales and Roberto Ramirez. Since turning pro, Zepeda won the vacant WBA Contintental Americas Lightweight Title in July, 2021 when he stopped Hector Tanajara after six rounds and defended it once by halting John Vincent Moralde in four rounds four months later. He’s also captured the vacant WBF Mexican Lightweight Title and the vacant WBC Fecarbox Silver Lightweight Crown

The 35-year-old Gesta fights out of San Diego and enters the ring with a mark of 34-3-3 with 17 Kos. His power isn’t overwhelming as his current knockout ratio is 50 per cent and has just one stoppage in his last 10 outings. His chin is somewhat questionable as he’s been dropped a few times and stopped once. His first loss was by unanimous decision to Miguel Vazquez in a shot at the IBF Lightweight Title in 2012. He didn’t lose again until Jorge Linares beat him by unanimous decision in 2018 in a shot at the WBC Diamond and WBA Lightweight Belts.

His last setback came at the hands of Juan Antonio Rodriguez in the ninth round in 2019. His three draws were a six-round technical decision with Carlos Morales in 2019, 10 rounds with Carlos Molina in 2015 and a two-round technical affair against Rey Llagas in 2005. Gesta turned pro back in 2003 just after he turned 16 years old and has boxed 264 rounds since. He has wins over Diaz, Martin Honorio, Gilberto Gonzalez, Miguel Angel Mendoza, Ty Barnett, Ricardo Dominguez, Oscar Meza and Jorge Pimentel.

Along the way, he’s won the vacant WBO NABO Youth, and WBO NABO Lightweight Titles. Gesta stands 5-feet-7-inches tall with a 68-inch reach which sees him give up two inches in height to Zepeda as well as 1.5-inches in reach. Like Zepeda, Gesta’s more of a brawler than a slick boxer and both have fan-friendly styles which should make this an exciting fight.


Gesta pulled off a bit of an upset against Diaz but I don’t think he’s got enough pop in his punches to keep Zepeda off of him for 12 rounds. Zepeda’s a relentless puncher who just keeps throwing leather and I think he’ll be too aggressive and powerful for Gesta come Saturday night and a stoppage is the most likely scenario.

Zepeda’s non-stop attack should be the difference here.

Play: Zepeda -2000 @ BetOnline.ag

Check out my recent boxing betting picks to see my current form.

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