Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez vs Jermell Charlo Betting Odds and Prediction

By Boxing

Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez vs Jermell Charlo Preview September 30th , 2023

WBO/IBF/WBA/WBC and Ring Magazine Super Middleweight Champion Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez of Mexico returns to the ring this Saturday, September 30th to take on undisputed Jr. Middleweight Champion Jermell Charlo of Lafayette, Louisiana. The 12-rounder from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada can be seen live in America on Showtime PPV while fans in the UK can catch it on FITE TV. Alvarez last saw action in May when he beat John Ryder via a unanimous decision while Charlo hasn’t fought since May of last year when he stopped Brian Castano in the 10th round of their rematch after battling to a draw 10 months earlier. He also added Castano’s WBO Jr Middleweight title to his collection with the win.

Alvarez vs Charlo Betting Odds

Here are the betting odds from online sportsbook (full review here).

  • Jermell Charlo +325
  • Saul Alvarez -450

My Pick

The 33-year-old Alvarez has beaten Caleb Plant, Callum Smith and Billy Joe Saunders for his latest collection of Super Middleweight Titles since 2020 and also defended various belts against Ryder. Gennady Golovkin and Avni Ylidirim during that span. And let’s not forget his unanimous decision loss to Dmitrii Bivol in May, 2022. He’s also beaten the likes of Rocky Fielding, Daniel Jacobs, Sergey Kovalev in the past five years.

Alvarez owns a 59-2-2 record with 39 Ko’s with his only other loss being a majority decision to Floyd Mayweather in September, 2013. His two draws were a highly-disputed 12-round affair with Golovkin in the first meeting of their trilogy in 2017 as well as a four-round battle against Jorge Juarez back in 2006. Alvarez stands 5-feet-8-inches tall with a 70.5 inch and has a wealth of experience under his belt as he turned pro in 2005 when he was just 15 years old has 472 rounds in the bank since then.

He’s taken on and beaten several other tough opponents over the years such as Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., Amir Khan, Miguel Cotto, James Kirkland, Austin Trout, Erislandy Lara, Shane Mosley, Josesito Lopez, Kermit Cintron, Carlos Baldomir, and Alfredo Angulo. He’s also held world titles in the junior. middleweight, middleweight and light heavyweight divisions as well as minor belts as a welterweight.

Alvarez has solid power and enters the fight with a current knockout ratio of 66.1 per cent and also possesses a granite chin and quick hands. However, he’s gone the distance in his last three fights and in six of his past 13 outings. Bivol, Plant, Golovkin, Mayweather, Lara and Khan to some degree, showed that Canelo can be outboxed in stages as he has difficulty handling a quick, stiff jab and fluid movement. Even so, Alvarez is an above-average boxer-puncher who likes to go to the body but has a bit of difficulty with opponents who are mobile.

The 33-year-old Charlo will climb into the ring with an impressive record of 35-1-1 with 19 Ko’s. He regained his WBC Belt with an 11th-round stoppage over Tony Harrison in December, 2019 after Harrison lifted it a year earlier via controversial unanimous decision. Charlo originally won the vacant title in May, 2016 when he stopped John Jackson in the eighth round and lost it to Harrison in his fourth defence.

Charlo stands six-feet-tall with a 73-inch reach for a four-inch height advantage over Alvarez as well as a 2.5-inch edge in reach. He turned pro back in 2007 and has boxed 256 rounds since. He doesn’t possess as much power as his twin brother Jermall as his current knockout ratio is 54.3 per cent and has stopped four of his last five opponents. He’s faced a higher grade of opponent than his brother up to now though such as Castano, Harrison, Austin Trout, John Jackson, Joachim Alcine, Vanes Martirosyan, Gabriel Rosado, Demetrius Hopkins, Harry Joe Yorgey, Charles Hatley and Erickson Lubin.

Charlo typically relies on his slick boxing skills to win fights but has enough power to stop a foe with an accumulation of well-placed and timed punches, which is what he did with former world champs Castano, Alcine, Harrison and several others. Although he has fine skills, Charlo hasn’t always been an overly-exciting boxer to watch. Up until meeting Harrison he was just a little too good for the opposition and the bouts didn’t result in much action or drama. However, his most recent tilts against Castano were definitely fan-friendly.


There are a lot of different views on this fight as Alvarez has been accused of cherry picking once again as Charlo has been out of action for about 16 months and fights two weight-divisions below him. It may backfire this time around though as Alvarez isn’t the boxer he once was and Charlo has enough skills and power to pull off an upset here. The jump in weight may be too much for him however, but if he can manage to hit and move, while taking advantage of his size difference I think he may be able to handle Alvarez the same way Bivol did. It’s going to be a big if though, adjusting to a 168 lb super middleweight fight. He’s either going to be overwhelmed by the weight division and get stopped or box his way to victory. I’m going to roll the dice here and go with Charlo pulling it off.

Charlo has the power and boxing skills to pull off an upset.

Play: Charlo +325 @

Check out my recent boxing betting picks to see my current form.

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