Michael Conlan vs Karim Guerfi Betting Odds and Prediction

By Boxing

Michael Conlan vs Karim Guerfi Preview December 10th, 2022

Michael Conlan of Belfast, Northern Ireland returns to the ring in his hometown this Saturday, December 10th when he takes on Karim Guerfi of France in a 10-round featherweight tilt. Conlan last fought in August when he beat Miguel Marriaga via a 10-round unanimous decision. Guerfi last fought in July when he beat Ricardo Mercado on points over 10 rounds. This Saturday’s fight can be seen live in America on ESPN+.

Conlan vs Guerfi Betting Odds

Here are the betting odds from online sportsbook BetOnline.ag (full review here).

  • Karim Guerfi +1100
  • Michael Conlan -2500

My Pick

The 31-year-old Conlan carries around a record of 16-1 with 8 Ko’s. He enjoyed a fine amateur career as he participated in the 2010 Commonwealth Games and was a quarter finalist at the 2011 European Championships and 2011 World Amateur Championships. He won a bronze medal at the 2012 Olympic Games in London, a silver medal at the 2013 European Championships and reached the final eight of the 2013 World Amateur Championships.

He then won gold at the 2014 Commonwealth Games and both the 2015 European Championships and World Amateur Championships before participating in the 2016 Olympics in Rio de Janeiro. Conlan also fought in the World Series of Boxing from 2012 to 2015. As an amateur, Conlan lost to Andrew Selby three times as well as to Jason Moloney, Robeisy Ramirez and Vladimir Nikitin (twice) and beat the likes of Khalid Yafai, Nordine Oubaali (twice), Jose Diaz and Murodjon Akhmadaliev.

Conlan turned pro back in 2017 and has 137 rounds of experience since. He stands 5-feet-8-inches tall with a 69-inch reach and has average power with a current knockout ratio of 44.4 per cent. Since turning pro he’s captured the vacant WBO Inter-Continental, and vacant WBA Inter-Continental Featherweight Titles, the WBA Interim World Featherweight Crown as well as the WBO Inter-Continental Super Bantamweight Crown.

Conlan has fine boxing skills and can also switch to southpaw at times and be just as effective. He’s not the biggest puncher in the division and has gone the distance in six of his last nine fights. Conlan was ahead on all three scorecards when he was stopped by Leigh Wood for the WBA Featherweight Belt in March for his lone career loss in a slugfest. His biggest wins have been against Marriaga, TJ Doheny, Ionut Baluta, Sofiane Takoucht, Kenny Guzman, David Berna, Jason Cunningham, Ruben Garcia and Diego Alberto Ruiz and he also avenged his controversial amateur defeats to Nikitin.

Guerfi steps into the ring with a mark of 31-6 with 9 Ko’s and has boxed 239 rounds since making his pro debut in 2006. He’s just over 5-feet-7-inches in height with a 64-inch reach which means he gives up half-an-in-inch in height to Conlan as well as five inches in reach. He also lacks power as Guerfi’s current knockout ratio reads just 23.7 per cent. His chin isn’t the greatest either as he’s been stopped in four of his six defeats.

Along the way, Guerfi has won the French Flyweight title as a pro as well as the vacant IBF Youth Flyweight Title, the vacant IBO International Flyweight Crown, the European Bantamweight Title (twice) and the European Featherweight Title. His half dozen losses came at the hands of Juan Carlos Reveco by unanimous decision in 2012 for the interim WBA Flyweight title and to Omar Lamiri in 2013 by 10-round split decision for the vacant French Bantamweight Title.

He was stopped in the fifth round by Zhanat Zhakiyanov in 2014 to lose the European Bantamweight Crown, was stopped in the fourth round in 2018 by Michael Dasmarinas for the vacant IBO Bantamweight Title, was stopped in the first round by Lee McGregor in 2021 to lose the European Bantamweight Crown again and was halted by Jordan Gill in the ninth round in February to lose his European Featherweight Title.

The 35-year-old Guerfi is basically a European-level boxer with his biggest wins being against the likes of Alain Bonnel, Julio Buitrago, Juma Fundi, Stephane Jamoye, Oscar Luna, Alejandro Gonzalez, Ryan Farrag, Georges Ory and Andoni Gaga. Considering Guerfi’s lack of power, suspect chin and age, it’s safe to say he’s now in the twilight of his career.


Conlan went toe-to-toe with Leigh Wood in March in a classic bout and came within a couple of minutes of taking his title but was dramatically stopped in the last round. He bounced back well against a hard hitter in Miguel Marriaga but is basically taking a step backward here against Guerfi. Conlan is expected to beat Guerfi rather handily and although it may not be a cakewalk, it’s a fight I’m expecting him to win.

Guerfi’s suspect chin and lack of power spells victory for Conlan.

Play: Conlan -2500 @ BetOnline.ag

Check out my recent boxing betting picks to see my current form.

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