Mario Barrios vs Fabian Maidana Betting Odds and Prediction

By Boxing

Mario Barrios vs Fabian Maidana Preview May 4th, 2024

Former WBA Super Lightweight champion Mario Barrios of San Antonio, Texas will be battling Fabian Andres Maidana of Argentina for the interim WBC Welterweight Title this Saturday, May 4th. The fight from Las Vegas can be seen live on pay-per-view on the undercard of the Alvarez vs Munguia tilt. Barrios last boxed in September when he beat former world champion Yordenis Ugas by unanimous decision for the interim belt after dropping him in the second and 12th rounds. Maidana last saw action in November when he beat Israel Lopez via a 10-round unanimous decision to retain his WBC Latino Welterweight Belt.

Barrios vs Maidana Betting Odds

Here are the betting odds from online sportsbook (full review here).

  • Fabian Maidana +600
  • Mario Barrios -1000

My Pick

The 28-year-old Barrios enters the ring with a mark of 28-2 with 18 Ko’s. He turned pro in 2013 following his amateur career and has 174 rounds of experience under his belt. He won the vacant WBA Super Lightweight Crown in September, 2019 when he beat Batyr Akhmedov by unanimous decision after dropping him in the fourth and 12th rounds. He then stopped Ryan Karl in the sixth round in his first title defence and lost his belt to Gervonta Davis when he was stopped in the 11th round of a competitive bout in June, 2021.

Then just eight months later he suffered his second defeat when he dropped a 12-round unanimous decision to former world champion Keith Thurman. Barrios captured the vacant WBA Inter-Continental Welterweight Title in July, 2018 by stopping Jose Roman after eight rounds and in February, 2023 he halted Jovane Santiago in the eighth round to take the WBC Continental Americas Welterweight Crown. He’s listed as six-feet-tall with a 71-inch reach and carries good power in his hands as 64.3 per cent of his wins have come by stoppage but he’s stopped just one of his last four opponents.

Barrios hadn’t really taken on many legitimate top contenders until meeting Davis when he took a step up in class but he handled himself pretty well in that fight. He took a bit of a risk by moving up to welterweight to take on Thurman but did okay in that contest too. Barrios has also beaten the likes of Yardley Cruz, Jose Luis Rodriguez, Richard Zamora and Juan Jose Velasco. He also possesses good speed and will need to use his effective jab to have success against Maidana.

As for Maidana, he’s 31 years old and has boxed 101 rounds since making his pro debut in 2014. as an amateur, he captured a silver medal at the Youth World Championships and a bronze at the Summer Youth Olympics and the Pan American Youth Championships, all in 2010. He’s also the younger brother of Marcos Maidana, a former two-division world champion. As a pro, Maidana has built up an impressive mark of 22-2 with 16 Ko’s.

He measures 5-feet-9-inches tall with a 72-inch wingspan which sees him give up three inches in height to Barrios while having a minimal one-inch edge in reach. Maidana possesses solid power in his punches as 72.7 per cent of his victories have been by stoppage including three of his last five. His first pro loss came at the hands of Jaider Parra by way of a 10-round unanimous decision in 2019 while his other defeat was by eight-round unanimous decision to Francisco Mercado in 2021. He won the vacant Latino Welterweight Belt in March, 2023 with a third-round KO over Edwin Bennett and has defended it twice. Maidana started his pro career with several fights in America and also has wins over Johan Perez, Justin Savi and Andrey Klimov.


Barrios has the edge in height, experience and has fought tougher opposition while Maidana carries more power and natural aggression and would probably prefer to make it a bit of an ugly fight if possible. Both boxers have pretty good chins even though Barrios has been stopped before. I’m looking forward to a hard-fought close fight and have a feeling that Barrios will have to be at his absolute best to pull out a win here. I think he’ll do just enough to succeed.

A close fight with Barrios having the better overall boxing skills.

Play: Barrios -1000 @

Check out my recent boxing betting picks to see my current form

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