Lucas Matthysse vs Manny Pacquiao Betting Odds and Prediction

By Boxing

Lucas Matthysse vs Manny Pacquiao Preview July 14th

Lucas Matthysse of Argentina will be defending his WBA Welterweight Title for the first time this Saturday, July 14th when he meets ring legend Manny Pacquiao of the Philippines in Kuala Lumpur. The 12-round bout will be streamed live in the U.S. On ESPN+ while fans in Britain and Ireland can catch the action live on BoxNation. Matthysse won the vacant crown in January when he stopped Tewa Kiram of Thailand in the eighth round. Pacquiao’s last fight came last July when he dropped a highly-controversial unanimous decision and his WBO Welterweight belt to Jeff Horn in Australia.

Matthysse vs Pacquiao Betting Odds

Here are the betting odds from online sportsbook (full review here).

  • Lucas Matthysse +175
  • Manny Pacquiao -205

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My Pick

Matthysse is now 35 years old and will climb into the ring with a record of 39-4 along with 36 Kos. His last loss came in an attempt at a world title in October of 2015 when he was stopped in the 10th round by Viktor Postol for the vacant WBC Super Lightweight Crown. He has a pretty good chin even though he’s been dropped a couple of times and was stopped by Postol, but it’s definitely not made of granite. Matthysse isn’t the tallest welterweight around as he’s just over 5-feet-6-inches with a 69-inch.

His other losses have been against Danny Garcia, Devon Alexander and Zab Judah and all three were by controversial decisions. Matthysse prefers opponents who stand in front of him and attack rather than those who attempt to box him, but his opponent on Saturday night is more likely to use his boxing skills and speed instead of getting into a toe-to-toe brawl. This means Matthysse is going to have to work to close the gap and do some damage.

The champion has decent boxing skills, but he’s best known for his power as he owns a knockout ratio of 82 per cent. He’s one of the hardest punchers of his generation and is never out of a fight because of it. His biggest wins have been against Emmanuel Taylor, Ruslan Provodnikov, Roberto Ortiz, John Molina Jr., Lamont Peterson, Humberto Soto, Mike Dallas Jr., De Marcus Corley and Vivian Harris. Matthysse has plenty of experience with 189 rounds under his belt turning pro back in 2004.

The 39-year-old southpaw Pacquiao will climb through the ring ropes with a record of 59-7-2 with 38 Kos. He’s still an excellent boxer with fine skills and speed, but Pacquiao’s power hasn’t been evident for quite some time. He hasn’t stopped an opponent in more than eight years as the last man he stopped was Miguel Cotto of Puerto Rico when he finished him in the 12th round back in 2009. Still, his knockout ratio currently stands at a decent 56 per cent, but he can’t depend on his power anymore.

Pacquiao’s chin has held up well since Juan Manuel Marquez landed the perfect punch on him in the sixth round back in December of 2012, but he’s been stopped in three of his seven career losses. Since he’s been on the canvas a few times during his career he needs to keep his focus at all times and make sure he doesn’t leave himself wide open for a Matthysse power shot. His key to winning this fight will be his speed and chin since the champion is the harder hitter, especially at welterweight.

Pacquiao stands just over 5-feet-5-inches tall and owns a 67-inch reach. He’s boxed 455 rounds since he turned pro back in 1995. He has tons of big fight experience against the best in the world after winning world titles in eight weight classes. Pacquiao has simply faced all the top boxers of his era and has lost just seven times. Like himself, a good number of his past opponents will be ending up in the hall of fame and this is what makes him a boxing legend. He’s fleet of foot with great hand speed and controls most fights with his right jab, stinging left hand and lightning-quick combinations.


Pacquiao is the more talented of the two, but that doesn’t guarantee anything as we saw against Horn. He’ll need to work hard for all 12 rounds with speed and movement and make sure he doesn’t get tagged directly on the chin. Matthysse is usually a slow starter, but can’t afford to do that against Pacquiao as he needs to get out of the gate early and establish his power by letting his hands go. We’ve seen Matthysse outboxed and stopped in the past, but he’s still one of the best welterweights out there due to his style and power. Don’t be surprised by any outcome here, but the most likely scenarios appear to be a Pacquiao decision or a Matthysse stoppage. Pacquiao may not have Freddie Roach in his scorner this time, but his style should be good enough to take a decision as long as his chin holds out.

This is a 50/50 fight, but Pacquiao’s boxing skills should frustrate Matthysse.

Play: Pacquiao -205 @

Check out my recent boxing betting picks to see my current form

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