Naoya Inoue vs Ramon Cardenas Betting Odds and Prediction

By Boxing

Naoya Inoue vs Ramon Cardenas Preview May 4th, 2025

Unbeaten, undisputed Super Bantamweight Champion Naoya Inoue of Japan will enter the ring in Las Vegas, Nevada this Sunday, May 4th to defend his titles against Ramon Cardenas of San Antonio, Texas. The 12-round contest can be seen live on the full ESPN platform in America while fans in the UK and Ireland can catch it on Sky Sports Action and those in Canada can see it on TSN 2. Inoue last fought in January when he stopped Je Yoon Kim in the fourth round in Tokyo. Kim was a late replacement for Sam Goodman who pulled out of scheduled fights with Inoue twice in the space of a month. Cardenas last saw action in February when he downed Bryan Acosta via a 10-round unanimous decision.

Inoue vs Cardenas Betting Odds

Here are the betting odds from online sportsbook BetOnline.ag (full review here).

  • Ramon Cardenas +1800
  • Naoya Inoue -10000

My Pick

The 32-year-old Inoue is just the second male Japanese boxer to win world titles in four weight divisions to join Kazuto Ioka in that feat. Inoue was also a world beltholder at 108, 115 and 118 lbs and has been an undisputed champion in two different divisions. As a bantamweight, Inoue fought in the World Boxing Super Series Bantamweight Tournament and won the IBF belt when he stopped Emmanuel Rodriguez in the second round in May, 2019.

Six months later he beat Nonito Donaire by unanimous decision in a classic battle to capture the tournament as well as Donaire’s WBA Super World Belt. Inoue had originally won the regular WBA title in May, 2018 when he stopped Jamie McDonnell in 112 seconds. After beating Donaire, Inoue defended the belts against Jason Moloney, Michael Dasmarinas and Aran Dipaen with stoppages in the seventh, eighth and third rounds respectively.

Inoue and Donaire met in a long-awaited rematch in June, 2022 with Inoue adding the WBC Bantamweight Title to his collection when he stopped the Filipino Flash in the second round. He then became undisputed with an 11th-round stoppage of Paul Butler in December, 2022. He enters the ring this Sunday with a perfect mark of 29-0 with 26 Ko’s. Inoue is also a former WBO Jr. Bantamweight and WBC Junior Flyweight Titleholder who has all the tools to be considered one of the world’s top pound-for-pound boxers. Inoue stands 5-feet-5-inches tall with a 67.5-inch reach.

He defended his Junior Bantamweight Crown seven times before moving up in weight. The Japanese star became a world champion in just his sixth pro fight when he stopped Adrian Hernandez in the sixth round for his WBC Junior Flyweight Belt in May, 2014. He defended it once then moved up to super flyweight and took the title from Omar Narvaez by second-round KO in December, 2014. More recently, he stopped former world champion TJ Doheny in the seventh round to defend his last August to defend his Super Bantamweight Belts.

He was also dropped for the first time in his career in the first round by Luis Nery in his previous bout in May, but then decked Nery in the second and fifth rounds before stopping him in the sixth. Inoue had halted Marlon Tapales in the 10th round for the WBA and IBF Belts in December, 2023 and the former Undisputed Bantamweight King halted Stephen Fulton in the eighth round five months earlier to take his WBO and WBC titles. Known as ‘The Monster,’ Inoue has been a sensation in his homeland since turning pro in 2012 and has boxed 173 rounds since.

He’s got dynamite in his fists with an 89.7 per cent knockout ratio but also has fine boxing skills. Inoue has stopped his last 10 opponents and has gone the distance just once since mid-2016, which was the first fight against Donaire in 2019, but he did drop him in the 11th round. Inoue enjoyed a fine amateur career and is now 24-0 with 21 Ko’s in world title fights. He’s also beaten the likes of Juan Carlos Payano, Ryoichi Taguchi, Kohei Kono, Antonio Nieves, David Carmona and Ricardo Rodriguez. He’s also 13-0 with 11 Kos against current or former world champions in Doheny, Nery, Tapales, Fulton, Butler, Donaire, Rodriguez, Taguchi, Hernandez, Narvaez, Kono, McDonnell and Payano.

Ramon ‘Dinamita’ Cardenas is 29 years old and makes the ring walk with an impressive mark of 26-1 with 14 Ko’s and has boxed 135 rounds since turning pro in 2015. He measures 5-feet-6-inches tall with an unlisted reach so is an inch taller than Inoue. He’s basically an unknown to most boxing fans and is currently ranked number nine in the world by ESPN. As an amateur, Cardenas reached the semifinals of the 2014 USA National Championships and the 2013 USA Youth National Championships.

As far as power goes, Cardenas is just above average as 53. 9 per cent of his wins have come by stoppage including four of his past five. His lone defeat came back in 2017 at the hands of Danny Flores by way of a 10-round majority decision. He beat Ramsey Luna by a 10-round unanimous decision in 2018 for the vacant American Boxing Federation Inter-Continental Featherweight Crown and then added the vacant NABA USA Super Bantamweight Belt in 2021 via an eight-round split decision over Angel Antonio Contreras.

In February, 2024, Cardenas beat Israel Rodriguez Picazo for the vacant WBC Fecarbox Super Bantamweight Title by stopping him after six rounds. Two months later he stopped Jesus Ramirez Rubio in the ninth round to claim the vacant WBA Continental North America Super Bantamweight Belt. He also has wins over Ryan Lee Allen, Eduardo Martinez, Marvin Solano, Michell Banquez and Rafael Pedroza. Fifteen of Cardenas’ 27 opponents entered the ring with a winning record and he’s never fought in a 12-round fight.

Prediction…

Let’s face it, this isn’t really a matchup fans wanted to see but Inoue likes to stay busy by fighting three or four times a year and Top Rank wanted to bring him back to America as he hasn’t fought there since June, 2021. This will be his fourth fight in the USA and just his fifth outside of Japan as he fought Emmanuel Rodriguez in Scotland in 2019. Inoue is one of the world’s most feared and top pound-for-pound boxers and Cardenas doesn’t match him in any area especially in experience and power but this is boxing and we all know anything can happen. Cardenas basically has nothing to lose here as nobody’s going to bat an eyelid if he gets blown out in the first round. On the other hand, he could make a name for himself if he lasts several competitive rounds. Inoue has fine boxing skills and IQ as well as power but he can’t afford to take anybody lightly after being dropped by Luis Nery and struggling somewhat against TJ Doheny. Still, he’s a fantastic body puncher who changes angles, speed and power when letting his hands go and while Cardenas may have his moments, Inoue should retain his belts. The only bet here seems to be how long Cardenas will last before the Monster eventually catches up with him. Inoue’s a KO artist but Cardenas has never been stopped in his 27 pro contests, albeit against lower-level opposition. Of course with Inoue a stoppage is never a bad bet but at these astronomical odds there’s nothing wrong with placing a small wager on Cardenas just in case he pulls off a miracle.

Inoue’s power and boxing skills should get the job done.

Play Inoue -10000 @ BetOnline.ag

Check out my recent boxing betting picks to see my current form.


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