Written by Greg Smith – 2011-12 NFL Prediction Record (18-11-1)
So everything is set for the final game of the season as the New York Giants and New England Patriots get set to play in Super Bowl 46. NFL bettors have their final opportunity of the season to make the winning play and cash in with this matchup. From my research and speaking with other successful NFL bettors I’ve identified some key statistics and storylines that I want to share so that we can continue our profitable NFL betting season.
First off, the New England Patriots and QB Tom Brady have had a great season to date, with an overall record of 13-3 and an ATS record of 9-7. Tom Brady’s individual statistics are once again spectacular as he’s thrown for 6220 yards with a completion rate of 65.25%, gaining 48 TD’s and 16 INT’s with an overall QBR of 104.7. As we’ll go through later in the article I believe the most recent games for both the Giants and Patriots are the most important indicators, to gain an overall perspective on the Patriots offense they currently rank 2nd in total yards gained, 2nd in passing yards, 20th in rushing yards gained and 3rd in total points scored. On defense, the Patriots are 31st in total yards allowed, 31st in passing yards allowed, 17th in rushing yards allowed and 15th in total points allowed per game. There are some fairly big concerns for the Patriots in regards to injuries, as they currently list TE Rob Gronkowski, WR Chad Ochocinco, CB Kyle Arrington, T Sebastian Vollmer, and RBShane Vereen as questionable for the Super Bowl match. Looking over their last 3 games the Patriots have defeated the Ravens, Broncos and Bills and in my opinion the Ravens games was a rather lucky win derived mostly from questionable coaching decisions. This game gives NFL bettors some important insight that we will go into further detail shortly.
As far as the New York Giants are concerned, they surely stand as an example of commitment and the old adage of never giving up. Struggling through much of this season, the Giants have come on strong when it matters the most. The Giants have an overall record of 14-9, with an ATS record of 13-9-1. To gain an overall perspective on the Giants, their offense currently ranks 8th in total yards gained per game, 5th in passing yards, 32nd in rushing yards gained and 9th in total points scored per game. The New York Giants defense currently ranks 27th in total yards allowed per game, 29th in passing yards allowed per game, 19th in rushing yards allowed per game and 25th in points allowed per game. Eli Manning has actually come close to Tom Brady in passing yards this season as he’s thrown for 6170 yards, with a completion rate of 60.2% with 37 TD’s and 19INT’s for an overall QBR of 91.6. Over their last 3 games the New York Giants have also had their share of good fortune, knocking off quality teams such as the 49ers, Packers and Falcons. Comparing the Patriots and Giants over their last 3 respective games we notice that the Patriots are gaining an average of 39 points offensively while giving up 17 points of defense. The Giants are averaging 27 points offensively over the last 3 games while giving up 13 points defensively. In regards to injuries, the Giants are currently listing TE Jake Ballard, C David Baas, QB Eli Manning, RB Ahmad Bradshaw, LB Mark Herzlich, WR Hakeem Nicks, DE Justin Tuck, DE Osi Umenyiora, and CB Corey Webster as questionable (although Manning will almost certainly start).
Looking at some keys to this NFL Super Bowl matchup I believe the New York Giants are doing a great job gelling as a team at exactly the right moment of the season. The Giants are riding high after knocking off both the offensive powerhouse Green Bay Packers and defensive power San Francisco 49ers. Looking at the turnover ratios, we notice that the New England Patriots through their last 3 games are at 0.0 while the New York Giants are at +1.7. For interceptions, through the last 3 games the Patriots stand at 1.3 and the Giants are at the lower average of 0.3. In the fumble department over the last 3 games the Patriots stand at an average of 1.7 while the Giants are at 0.3. Put simply while it is a strange feeling to be going against QB Tom Brady and Coach Belichick I believe QB Eli Manning and Coach Tom Coughlin are peaking at exactly the right time and the statistics back this up. Through their last 3 games the Giants win as we compare turnovers, interceptions and fumbles although the Patriots are showing a slight edge in the points gained/allowed area.
Prediction: Take the New York Giants (+3) against the New England Patriots for this Super Bowl contest (Bookmaker.eu)
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