Brady Throws a Pick and Takes the First Sack
NFL bettors that regularly follow my NFL prediction articles (which should be everyone since we had a very profitable season) know that I am not a big prop wager person. I generally do my research, put my ear in the street and try to pick a winning side. However, when looking for winning teams in matchups throughout the season I inevitably notice trends and patterns that can translate to winning prop wagers. Looking ahead to this Sunday’s Super Bowl matchup between the New York Giants and New England Patriots and the extensive list of prop wagers offered by 5Dimes I noticed two prop bets in particular that I wanted to point out as a special Super Bowl XLVI bonus.
The first prop wager to point out is listed as “Tom Brady throws an interception -160.” Although I’m not really that keen to “pay the juice” as they say on wagers this one in particular should have a relatively likely chance of cashing and I’ll explain why. First off, Tom Brady is having a sensational year as QB for the Patriots with 39 TD’s for 5239 yards with 12 INT’s, a completion percentage of 65.6 and an overall QBR of 105.6. However, as we look back over the Patriots season we notice that they haven’t really faced a lot of high powered defences and when they have, Brady has thrown some picks. Looking at the Ravens game as a good example, we notice that Brady didn’t throw for any TD’s but threw for 2 INT’s. Another example would be Brady against the Denver Broncos where he threw for 6 TD’s but still also threw 1 INT. Finally, in their previous game against the Giants this season QB Brady threw for 2 TD’s and also 2 INT’s against a New York squad that has to be considered far weaker than the present group that is at relatively full health. Every sports-savvy person on the planet realizes that the fundamental key to the Patriots success will be QB Tom Brady and his ability to find receivers if he is allowed the time and space to do so. Almost certainly the Giants defence that seems to have come into its full power recently will be doing their utmost to deny Brady time and space and therefore will most likely pressure him into a throw that will show up as an interception. Remember, for this prop we aren’t particularly concerned with the overall performance of Tom Brady and the rest of the Patriots-we are only concerned that over the course of the full game (plus OT if we get there) Brady makes one errant pass that winds up as an interception.
My second prop wager recommendation leads nicely from the Tom Brady interception prop and it reads as “New York Giants sacks New England QB first -135”. As I mentioned, the New York defence will be coming full throttle for Tom Brady right from the start of this game, knowing that he is the fundamental key to the Patriots success. Looking at the relevant recent stats for this prop wager we see that the Giants created 3 sacks against the 49ers (while giving up 6 of their own), against the Packers they created 4 sacks (while giving up 1 of their own) and against the Falcons they created 2 sacks (while giving up 1 of their own). On the Patriots side of this, we see that against the Ravens they created 3 sacks on QB Joe Flacco (while giving up 1 of their own), against the Broncos they created 5 sacks (while giving up 0) and against the New York Giants a few months ago they created 0 sacks (while giving up 2 of their own). More specifically on the Giants, Jason Pierre-Paul is having a stellar season with 17 sacks to date as is Osi Umenyiora with 12.5 sacks to date. To put it simply I think that Brady will face more pressure than Manning will face and he will be going against superior opposition.
As far as our prop wagers go, I have a personal inclination to combine these bets in a parlay to increase the payout but of course this creates the risk of a zero return if either one does not come through. At any rate I feel confident recommending the two wagers as individual bets since the stats and general play of both teams makes me feel they make sense.
Written by Greg Smith