Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez vs Gennadiy Golovkin Betting Odds and Prediction

By Boxing

Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez vs Gennadiy Golovkin Preview September 17th, 2022  

Gennady Golovkin of Kazakhstan brings his Big Drama Show back to Las Vegas this Saturday, September 17th as he moves up in weight to take on the WBO/IBF/WBA/WBC and Ring Magazine Super Middleweight Champion Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez of Mexico. This of course is the third fight between the two as they battled to a draw in 2017 with Alvarez winning a majority decision a year later. Both 12-round middleweight bouts were highly controversial with many fans feeling Golovkin was shafted. Golovkin last fought in April when he put his IBF and IBO World Middleweight Titles on the line against WBA Champion Ryota Murata of Japan and stopped him in the ninth round of a slugfest. Alvarez last saw action in May when he moved up in weight to challenge WBA Light Heavyweight Champion Dmitry Bivol and was given a boxing lesson. However he inexplicably lost the unanimous decision by the ridiculously close scores of 115-113 across the board. This weekend’s fight can be seen live on DAZN pay per view in most nations.

**Watch live on DAZN this Saturday.  Your first month is free.

Alvarez vs Golovkin Betting Odds

Here are the betting odds from online sportsbook (full review here).

  • Gennadiy Golovkin +375
  • Saul Alvarez -550

My Pick

The 40-year-old Golovkin enters the ring with an official mark of 42-1-1 with 37 Ko’s. However he arguably won both previous fights against Alvarez. Golovkin is known for his power and chin as he owns a current knockout ratio of 84.1 per cent and has never been dropped. He was also riding a streak of 23 straight knockouts until beating Danny Jacobs by unanimous decision in March, 2017. Since then he’s stopped four of his last seven opponents.

He went the distance twice with Alvarez, stopped Steve Rolls and Vanes Martirosyan, went the distance with Sergiy Derevyanchenko and stopped Kamil Szeremeta and then Ryota Murata. Golovkin’s power may be slightly diminished these days but he still managed to drop Jacobs and also wobbled Alvarez in both fights. Golovkin stands just over 5-feet-10-inches tall with a 70-inch reach and turned pro back in 2006 after a fine amateur career.

He’s fought 228 rounds since then with his stiffest competition being Alvarez, Jacobs, Murata, Derevyanchenko, Kell Brook, David Lemieux, Willie Monroe Jr., Marco Antonio Rubio, Martin Murray, Daniel Geale, Curtis Stevens, Matthew Macklin and Gabriel Rosado. He was attempting to defend his title for the 21st time when losing his WBC and WBA belts to Alvarez in September, 2018. Golovkin isn’t perfect, but simply goes about his job no matter who he faces.

He’s also shown to have a granite chin to go along with his power and fine boxing skills. Golovkin isn’t afraid of getting hit while he unleashes fierce body and head shots but can also be patient while stalking his prey. He’s usually in great shape and just keeps coming and eventually wears the majority of his opponents down. Still, it’s probably fair to say Golovkin’s considered to be a KO artist and in fact he’s one of the best ever in the middleweight division and the entire sport.

The 32-year-old Alvarez won his latest in a merry-go-round of titles last November when he took Caleb Plant’s super middleweight belt. Before that he beat Callum Smith by unanimous decision for the vacant WBC Super Middleweight Title as well as Smith’s WBA belt and then added the WBO title with his eight-round demolition of Billy Joe Saunders. However, the only time he’s been severely tested since his two contests against Golovkin was in his recent loss to Bivol.

Since those meetings with Triple G, he’s also beaten the likes of Rocky Fielding, Daniel Jacobs, Sergey Kovalev, and Avni Yildirim while stopping Fielding, Kovalev and Yildirim. Jacobs, Smith, Kovalev, Saunders and Plant were his toughest tests of that bunch and Alvarez didn’t really have too much trouble with any of them. Like Golovkin, he’s stopped four of his last seven opponents.

Alvarez owns a 57-2-2 record with 39 Ko’s with his only other loss being a majority decision to Floyd Mayweather in September, 2013. Besides his draw with Golovkin, he drew a four-round affair against Jorge Juarez back in 2006. Alvarez stands 5-feet-8-inches tall with a 70.5 inch reach which means he gives up 2.5-inches in height to Golovkin. He has a wealth of experience as he turned pro when he was just 15 years old in 2005 and has 448 rounds under his belt since.

He’s taken on and beaten several other tough opponents over the years such as Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., Amir Khan, Miguel Cotto, James Kirkland, Austin Trout, Erislandy Lara, Shane Mosley, Josesito Lopez, Kermit Cintron, Carlos Baldomir, and Alfredo Angulo. He’s also held world titles in the junior. middleweight, middleweight and light heavyweight divisions as well as minor belts as a welterweight.

Alvarez has solid power and enters the fight with a current knockout ratio of 63.9 per cent with a granite chin and quick hands. However, Bivol, Golovkin, Mayweather, Lara and Khan to some degree, showed that Canelo can be outboxed in stages as he has difficulty handling a quick, stiff jab. Even so, Alvarez is an above-average boxer-puncher who likes to go to the body but has a bit of difficulty with opponents who are mobile.


It’s not really surprising that Alvarez has waited until Golovkin turned 40 years old to fight him again since Golovkin has punished him in the ring more than anybody in his career. Bivol and Mayweather both beat Alvarez but they did so by outboxing him. The two fights with Triple G were both brawls and each man was hit hard and often as they’re both heavy hitters who can also soak up a lot of punishment. Once again, it’s going to be a war of attrition for as long as it lasts and it could go either way with another draw being a possibility. We know Alvarez can handle the 168 lb division but this is Golovkin’s first fight at the higher weight. I don’t believe Golovkin lost either of the first two fights with Alvarez but this could be the toughest of the trilogy for him. Still, if it’s anything like the first two contests and we get reliable judging, I’m going with Golovkin.

This is a tossup but Golovkin has the tools to pull off a mild upset.

Check out my recent boxing betting picks to see my current form.

Play: Golovkin -550 @

Leave a Comment