Murodjon Akhmadaliev vs Luis Castillo Betting Odds and Prediction

By Boxing

Murodjon Akhmadaliev vs Luis Castillo Preview May 30th, 2025

Former IBF and WBA Super Bantamweight Champion Murodjon Akhmadaliev of Uzbekistan is back in the ring this Friday, May 30th to take on Mexico’s Luis Castillo. The 10-round super bantamweight fight from Guadalajara can be seen live in most nations on DAZN. Akhmadaliev last fought in December when he stopped Ricardo Espinoza Franco in the third round. Akhmadaliev beat Danny Roman by split decision in 2020 to win his titles and defended them against Ryosuke Iwasa by fifth-round stoppage in April, 2021 then beat Jose Velasquez by unanimous decision in November, 2021. He halted Ronny Rios in the 12th round in June, 2022 but lost his belts in April, 2023 when he dropped a controversial split decision to Marlon Tapales. He bounced back with an eighth-round TKO over Kevin Gonzalez in December, 2023 and then halted Franco. Castillo’s last fight was in December, 2023 and resulted in a six-round unanimous decision over Brandon Contreras Pena.

Akhmadaliev vs Castillo Betting Odds

Here are the betting odds from online sportsbook BetOnline.ag (full review here).

  • Luis Castillo +2000
  • Murodjon Akhmadaliev -25000

My Pick

The 30-year-old Akhmadaliev is now 13-1 with 10 Ko’s and obviously has a lot of power in his fists as 76.7 per cent of his wins have come by stoppage, but three of his last seven outings have gone the distance. He made his pro debut in 2018 and has 92 rounds of experience under his belt. The southpaw enjoyed a successful amateur career as he won a bronze medal in the bantamweight division at the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil after losing to Robeisy Ramirez in the semifinals and a silver at the 2015 World Amateur Championships in Doha, Qatar where he was beaten in the final by Ireland’s Michael Conlan.

Akhmadaliev, who now fights out of Indio, California, reportedly reportedly went 300-20 as an amateur with 80 Ko’s. He also won silver at the 2012 World Youth Championships and was the Uzbekistan National Champion in 2013 and 2014. He was the silver medallist at the 2015 Asian Championships and won gold at the same event two years later. He gained experience by boxing for the Uzbek Tigers in the 2016 and 2017 World Series of Boxing (WSB). Akhmadaliev stands just over 5-feet-5-inches tall with a 68-inch reach.

Since turning pro, Akhmadaliev has brought his power along for the ride. He stopped Isaac Zarate in the ninth round for the WBA Inter-Continental Super Bantamweight Title in November, 2018 in his first defence after halting Ramon Contreras in just 80 seconds three months earlier to win the vacant crown. He won his world titles in just his eighth pro bout and doesn’t have a ton of experience in the pro ranks against the upper echelon just yet but his wins over Gonzalez, Roman, Iwasa, Velasquez and Rios were all impressive and his loss to Tapales could have gone either way.

Castillo is 29 years old and carries around a record of 31-6 with 20 Ko’s and has boxed 174 rounds since turning pro in 2015. Unfortunately there’s no height and reach information for Castillo so we don’t know exactly how he stacks up size-wise against Akhmadaliev. It’s evident that he has decent power though as 64.5 per cent of his wins have come by stoppage. He’s stopped just two of his last seven opponents however and has three wins and four losses in that span.

Castillo started his career by going 19-0 before dropping a six-round majority decision to Adrian Jiminez is 2017. His other defeats include an eight-round unanimous decision to Rosendo Hugo Guarneros in 2019; a 10-round unanimous decision to Ukashir Farooq for the vacant WBC International Bantamweight Title in 2021; a 10-round unanimous decision to Christian Rangel in 2022; a fifth-round TKO to Tomoki Kameda in 2023 and an eight-round unanimous decision to Lamberto Macias, also in 2023.

Other than Kameda, most of Castillo’s opponents are relatively unknown and just 11 of his 37 opponents have entered the ring with a winning record. He has a decent chin though as he’s been stopped just once in his six defeats but will also have some ring rust to deal with as this will be his first fight in 18 months. As for Akhmadaliev, this is a stay-busy fight as he’s supposed to meet undisputed Super Bantamweight Champion Naoya Inoue in Tokyo in September.

Prediction…

Akhmadaliev is a fine boxer with good power and doesn’t really lack anything. His loss to Tapales was quite controversial as he came on very strong in the second half after struggling somewhat in the earlier rounds. Castillo has decent power and a good chin and can’t be taken too lightly as he could derail Akhmadaliev’s fight with Naoya Inoue. Castillo is an astronomical underdog here though as he isn’t in the same class as the former world champion and it seems the only other bet is in which round will he be stopped.

The skills, power and speed of Akhmadaliev should be the difference.

Play: Akhmadaliev -25000@ BetOnline.ag

Check out my recent boxing betting picks to see my current form.


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