Miguel Cotto vs Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez Betting Odds and Prediction

By Boxing

Miguel Cotto vs Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez Preview November 21st

Saul Alvarez bettingThere’s still one more big pay-per-view fight left to go in the 2015 boxing calendar and that features WBC Middleweight Champion Miguel Cotto of Puerto Rico defending his title against Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez of Mexico at the Mandalay Bay and Resort Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada this Saturday, November 21st. Fans in North America will need to fork out for the HBO pay-per-view broadcast of the card while those in the UK can catch all of the the action live on BoxNation.

Cotto vs Alvarez Betting Odds

Here are the betting odds from online sportsbook BetOnline.ag (full review here).

  • Miguel Cotto +250
  • Saul Alvarez -300

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My Pick

The 35-year-old year-old Cotto has gotten back on track after losing two in a row and teaming up with trainer Freddie Roach. He ‘s hoping the newfound momentum and confidence will carry him past Alvarez. He’s been with Roach for three fights now and has looked impressive in all of them, especially in June of last year when he took the title from former champ Sergio Martinez of Argentina by 10th-round stoppage. Cotto will be entering the ring with a record of 40-4 with 33 Kos while the 25-year-old Alvarez, who is a former junior middleweight champion, has an equally impressive mark of 45-1-1 with 32 Kos.

Cotto is a former junior welterweight, welterweight and junior middleweight world champion who has regained his confidence after three consecutive stoppages, but not enough to fight at the 160 lb. middleweight limit. Therefore, this bout is being held at a catch weight of 155 lbs. There’s also added drama on Saturday night since this is another in the long line of classic Puerto Rico vs Mexico matchups. Cotto, a former Olympian, enters the contest at 5-feet-7-inches in height and has a reach of 67 inches. He’s been in some wars in the past and has beaten the likes of Paulie Malignaggi, Zab Judah, Shane Mosley, Yuri Foreman, Ricardo Mayorga, Antonio Margarito and Daniel Geale, while losing to Margarito, Floyd Mayweather, Austin Trout and Manny Pacquiao with the losses to Pacquiao and Margarito coming by way of stoppage.

Alvarez, who stands 5-foot-9 and has a wingspan of 70.5 inches, has taken on some tough opponents himself, but even though he’s 10 years younger and has fought more pro bouts than Cotto, he doesn’t have as much experience against top-notch opponents. Alvarez’s last outing was a thrilling third-round Ko over James Kirkland back in May. This will be his first official middleweight bout or fight over the 154 lb. limit and up to know he’s taken care of the likes of Trout, Mosley, Josesito Lopez, Kermit Cintron, Alfonzo Gomez, Alfredo Angulo and Erislandy Lara, while suffering his only defeat to Floyd Mayweather by majority decision in 2013. He also fought to a four-round draw with Jorge Juarez in 2006. Alvarez has fought 314 rounds since turning pro in while Cotto has 309 under his belt since 2001.

When it comes to power, both guys have it. Cotto’s current career knockout ratio stands at 75 per cent while Alvarez’s is 68 per cent. The Mexican is a heavy, thudding puncher with both hands while Cotto has a tremendous left hook. However, Alvarez is younger, naturally bigger and the stronger of the two. He also has shown a better chin than Cotto up to now. As far as boxing skills go, Cotto is quicker and more mobile even though he’s a decade older than the challenger. His hand speed may be slightly quicker than Alvarez’s, but not by much. In the past, Cotto has faded late in some of his biggest fights and Alvarez usually gets stronger as the bout goes on if he’s pressed to do so. The 10-year age disadvantage here certainly won’t do the champion any favours.

For Cotto to be successful here he needs to use his jab and footwork and make sure that he’s accurate with his punches and also goes to the body. He needs to keep the pressure on Alvarez and take advantage of any openings the challenger leaves while he’s trying to counter. Alvarez is sometimes a little too patient in his contests and will need to led his hands go more against Cotto. He’s the heavier puncher with a stronger chin and shouldn’t wait to get hit before throwing his own leather. This fight should offer plenty of action for the fans and shouldn’t take too long to get pretty heated.


The 10-year age difference and weaker chin make it hard to go with Cotto here. He’s past his prime while Alvarez should just be entering his. Still, Cotto has a lot of pride and heart and he will certainly give it his best shot. He has all of the tools to needed pull out a win, and if he did so it wouldn’t shock anybody. However, I see Alvarez wearing Cotto down and eventually stopping him in the second half of the fight.

This fight is close enough to go with the underdog Cotto if you choose.

Play: Alvarez -300 @ BetOnline.ag

Check out my recent boxing betting picks to see my current form.