George Groves vs Callum Smith Betting Odds and Prediction

By Boxing

George Groves vs Callum Smith Preview Sept. 28th

Jeddah, Saudi Arabia may be the site, but the World Boxing Super Series Super Middleweight Final is an all British clash this Friday, September 28th. Fans will see WBA Super World Super Middleweight Champion George Groves of London, England defending his title against Callum Smith of Liverpool. The 12-round bout can be seen on ITV pay per view in the UK, on Super Channel in Canada and on DAZN in the U.S. The final was pushed back from June as Groves has been healing from shoulder surgery. He took on IBO Champion Chris Eubank Jr in his last outing in February and handed him a unanimous decision defeat. Smith’s semifinal match was also in February when he beat Nieky Holzken by unanimous decision.

Groves vs Smith Betting Odds

Here are the betting odds from online sportsbook (full review here).

  • Callum Smith +110
  • George Groves -130

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My Pick

Groves won the vacant WBA title with a sixth-round stoppage of Fedor Chudinov in May of last year and has defended it against Jamie Cox and Eubank, both in the World Boxing Super Series. Smith’s first fight in the tournament resulted in a unanimous decision win over Erik Skoglund for the vacant WBC Diamond Super Middleweight Title. Smith has also held the British, European WBC International, and WBC Silver Super Middleweight Crowns while Groves has been a WBA International, WBC Silver, British, European, and WBA Inter-Continental Super Middleweight Titleholder.

The 30-year-old Groves finally won a world title in his fourth attempt when he beat Chudinov. He climbs into the ring with a record of 28-3 with 20 Kos. All three of his losses have been against world champions as he was stopped by Carl Froch in 2013 and 2014 and then dropped a split decision to Badou Jack in September of 2015. Groves managed to drop Froch in the opening round of their first meeting and had him in big trouble, but let him off the hook.

The champ has pretty good power with a knockout ratio of 65 per cent, but Froch showed that Groves’ chin can let him down on occasion. The WBA boss stands just under 6-feet tall, has a 72-inch reach and has boxed 198 rounds since turning pro in 2008. He gained a lot of confidence in his performances against Froch even though he lost them both and certainly gained even more belief in himself by beating Eubank. However, he didn’t show enough energy or urgency against Badou Jack.

Groves was determined to win a world belt when he fought Chudinov and was relentless on the attack once he sensed he had his man in trouble. He has fine boxing skills to go along with his heavy fists and likes to use his jab, but Froch and Jack showed he’s vulnerable to counter punches if he leaves himself open for too long. Groves has also beaten Paul Smith, James DeGale and Glen Johnson He’s perhaps a bit underrated on the world scene and while he’s not an elite boxer, he’s definitely a very good one.

The 28-year-old Smith has a perfect record of 24-0 along with 17 Kos. He’s 6-feet-3-inches tall with a 78-inch reach so is pretty big for the 168 lb division. He’ll have a three-inch height and six-inch reach advantage over Groves. Smith had a fine amateur career and was once the British Welterweight Champion. Since turning pro in 2012 he’s fought 112 rounds, but for all the belts he’s won, Smith hasn’t faced a Grade A boxer as of yet.

Smith has beaten the likes of Holzken, Skoglund, Luke Blackledge, Norbert Nemesapati, Cesar Hernan Reynoso, Rocky Fielding and Christopher Rebrasse etc. He’s has displayed pretty good power up to now with a current knockout ratio of 71 per cent, but his lack of quality opponents may hurt his chances against Groves. He’s got size on his side though and if he uses it to his advantage he’ll definitely fare a bit better.


Smith has the edge in size, but Groves has a wealth more experience against top-ranked opponents. Groves’ chin may also be more of a question mark. The champ is solid and tough though and if he can handle Smith’s power he should be able to do enough to retain his title.

As the odds show, this is a close call. However, I think Groves has more experience against tougher foes and that will be the difference.

Play: Groves -130 @

Check out my recent boxing betting picks to see my current form.

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