Germany is right where they and most fans expected them to be after the group stage of Euro 2012. They sit atop the group B standings with the maximum 9 points having won all 3 of their group matches. Now they face Greece who surprised the world when they defeated Russia in their final group A match to jump from 1 point to 4 points, which was enough to qualify them for the quarterfinals.
Group A was by far the worst group in the tournament, while group B was considered the group of death. Germany is a much stronger opponent than the Greeks have faced yet at these European Championships, while it can be argued that the Greeks are less talented than each of the teams Germany faced in group B. The oddsmakers seem to agree with this assessment.
Germany vs Greece Odds
To Qualify
Germany -800
Greece +500
Full Time Odds
Germany -300
Draw +400
Greece +1000
As you can see Germany are huge favorites to qualify for the semi-finals and the game is not expected to go to extra time. You would have to risk $800 betting on Germany to qualify to win $100.
Prediction
The odds are the way they are for a reason. The Greeks would simply have to play a perfect game to even be in this quarterfinals with the class that the Germans have.
Germany wasn’t dominant in their group games, but they did what they needed to do, and found a way to win playing a very team-oriented style. Gomez was able to find the back of the net on 3 occasions already, which bodes well for the Germans moving forward and Schweinsteiger and Ozil have looked very good providing balls into dangerous positions for the teams scorers. Germany is very good at spreading the ball out on offense and then condensing their team to not give up anything on the defensive side of the ball. Their class and the way their team has come together should be more than enough to beat a Greek team that is lucky to be in this game.
Greece had only 2 shots on target against the Russians, one of which found the back of the net, while the Russians had 10 attempts on target and controlled play for 62% of the game. The Greek win looked a lot like most of their wins from the EURO 2004 when the Greeks won a bunch of games 1-0 where they didn’t touch much of the ball to win the title. The Germans have to be wary of this, but the talent on the German side should be able to break down the Greek defense for at least a couple goals in this game.
Expect Germany to win this one before extra time. I like the -300 bet on Germany in full time rather than taking -800 for them to qualify because in extra time funny things can happen and if the game goes to a penalty shootout it can really go either way.
Keep up with the tournament at the Euro 2012 official website!
Written by: Niko de Jonge