Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys Week 12 Free Pick


Washington Redskins +4 @ Dallas Cowboys – Side Play

The Dallas Cowboys (5-5) are in their traditional Thanksgiving Day role as they play host to the Washington Redskins (4-6) for RGIII’s first visit to Jerry’s Place.   The Cowboys lost their fourth of five games at Atlanta on November 4th, but Jason Garret’s club has responded with 2 straight victories over Philadelphia and Cleveland.  They are now only one game back of the NFC East leading New York Giants who sit at 6-4.

Dallas veteran quarterback Tony Romo has completed 67.3 percent of his tosses for 2,916 passing yards, but he has an unexceptional 13/13 touchdown/interception ratio. Jason Witten is his key target, hauling in 73 catches for 636 yards and one touchdown.

Rob Ryan’s Cowboy defense will seemingly have their hands full in their first meeting with Robert Griffin III.  Washington crushed the Eagles in a home victory (31-6) last week ending a three game slide.  Griffin delivered a superb performance against Philadelphia, completing 14-of-15 passes for 200 yards and four touchdowns without an interception while adding 84 yards on 12 carries on the ground.

It is safe to say RGIII is living up to, if not, surpassing expectations. RGIII has hit 67.1 percent of his passes for 2,193 yards with a 12/3 touchdown/interception ratio and has rushed for 624 yards and six touchdowns thus far in his rookie campaign.

Washington Redskins +4 @ Dallas Cowboys (betting prediction)

The Dallas Cowboys have a very difficult time covering spreads at home.  There are many factors that play into this trend: the Cowboys are “America’s Team” and backers are going to pay a steep price to see the silver and blue cover the number.  Another factor is Jerry Jones’ mega-stadium is cavernous, making it less noisy than a lot of other stadiums around the league.  Home field advantage is lessened further by the size of the stadium as it seems visiting teams’ fan-bases are always well represented in Dallas, presumably because there are more available seats.

The numbers don’t lie:

DALLAS is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons

Conversely, Washington is 4-0 ATS when playing Dallas over the last two seasons.

Play: Washington +4 (5dimes.eu)

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NFL Record: 6-3 

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