San Francisco 49ers Dominate at Home versus New Orleans Saints
Written by Greg Smith – 2011-12 NFL Prediction Record (16-9-1)
This weekend features another stellar NFL betting matchup as the New Orleans Saints travel to San Francisco to take on the 49ers. In my opinion NFL bettors are looking at a comparison between siding with the high powered offense of the Saints versus the stability and defence of the 49ers. Let’s go through the most important details to determine the most likely result for this matchup and how we can profit this weekend.
Certainly the Saints are having a tremendous year on offense as QB Drew Brees leads the way with 49 touchdowns and 14 interceptions on the year. Brees is passing at a 71 percent rate to date, with a QBR of 112.1 to the year and 5,942 yards gained passing. The Saints have a total record to date of 13-3 and are 12-4 ATS on the year. Overall the Saints offense ranks 1st in total yards gained, 1st in passing yards gained, 6th in rushing yards gained and 2nd in total points scored per game. The Saints are looking quite healthy overall with WR Lance Moore, TE John Gilmore and LB Jon Casillas being their only questionable players for this weekend’s game. There are a few problems facing the Saints this weekend that are leading me to side with the home 49ers. First, the Saints have an ATS record of only 4-4 as the visiting team so far this year. Second, while Brees has some great numbers as a quarterback the Saints as a team are at -0.2 for their turnover ratio to date overall. Even more concerning for the Saints is that they are at -0.9 for their turnover ratio overall when they are the visiting squad and they stand at 0.0 for their last three games turnover ratio. Third, the Saints defence overall is currently ranked at 24th in total yards allowed per game, 30th in passing yards allowed per game, 12th in rushing yards allowed per game and 13th in total points allowed per game. These are some factors that take a lot of the shine away from the high powered Saints team and should give the 49ers many opportunities this weekend.
The 49ers in general this year have an ATS record of 7-0-1 at home and a total ATS record of 12-3-1 which shows us they have had good success beating the Vegas line-particularly at home. QB Alex Smith is definitely not Drew Brees but he has earned 17 TD’s this season to 5 INT’s and is passing at 61.35 % to date with an overall QBR of 90.7. The 49ers offense definitely lags behind the Saints as they currently rank at 26th for total yards gained, 29th in passing yards gained, 8th in rushing yards and 11th in total points scored per game. However, the 49ers are built largely around their defence which is currently ranked 4th in total yards allowed per game, 16th in total passing yards allowed per game, 1st in rushing yards allowed per game and 2nd in total points allowed per game. As well, the 49ers are having a great year in the turnover department as they currently stand at +1.8 for their year average, +2.3 over their last three games and +2.4 for their year average when they play at home. As far as injuries the 49ers are also in reasonably good standing with only WR Ted Ginn and WR Kyle Williams listed as questionable for this weekend.
So as we compare the key statistics between both teams it is my opinion that although the Saints are going to get a lot of the publicity and hype it is the 49ers that have the best likelihood of winning. The 49ers have a huge advantage in turnover differential, their defence is superior and they play particularly well ATS at home.
Prediction: Take the San Francisco 49ers +3.5 this weekend against the New Orleans Saints. (5Dimes.com)
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