New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins Week 13 Free Pick


Cincinnati Bengals @ San Diego Chargers Week 13 Preview and Prediction

After a Thanksgiving Day feast on the hapless New York Jets, Tom Brady and his New England Patriots stride into Miami this Sunday looking to clinch their ninth AFC East title in ten years.  They hope to lock up their fourth consecutive division title while looking for five in a row over the Fish, and their sixth successive W this season.

Bill Belichick has orchestrated the NFL’s best offense to this point, averaging 435.8 yards and 37.0 points per game. New England has been virtually unstoppable throughout its current five game rip, averaging 43.8 points with six of its mindboggling 28 touchdowns contributed by the defense and special teams.

Tom Brady has been his usual exceptional self during the streak, connecting on 64.4 percent of his tosses for 1,454 yards with 14 touchdowns and 0 interceptions while assembling a 116.3 passer rating. He threw three of those touchdowns last week, and tacked on a 1-yard rushing TD.

The Dolphins attempt to return to .500 and have reason to feel good following last weekend’s 24-21 win over Seattle. Rookie Ryan Tannenhill helped Miami comeback in the fourth quarter by throwing a touchdown to Charles Clay with 5:13 remaining to tie the game.  The Dolphins completed the comeback when Dan Carpenter hit a 43-yard field goal as time expired.  Tannenhill was 18 for 26 for 253 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT for the game.

New England Patriot -7 @ Miami Dolphins (betting prediction)

It does not appear the Dolphins will reach the .500 mark in Week 13.  One of the main reasons the Patriots have reeled off four straight against the Dolphins (other than being the far superior team) is that they have won the turnover battle (+7).  Brady has helped things along as he usually does, completing 65.7% of his passes with 8 TDs and one INT.

Despite the heroics last week against Seattle, Tannenhill has been in a swoon throwing a 2-6 TD/INT ratio over the last 3 regular season games.

Looking deeper, the Patriots look even better:

Miami is 1-3 both straight up and against the spread in its last four games this season.

The Pats have won and covered 4 of the last 5 in South Florida. The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 games of the series.

Brady and Belichick are 9-2 to the “over” this year and now 37-12 OU since late 2009.

The “over” has hit in the last four games in this series.

Play: New England Patriots -7 (

I love this teaser play, as well: New England PK/Over 44

Read our full 5Dimes review to learn more about our recommended bookie.

NFL Record: 8-3 

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