When you’re only making 10 plays a month, going 3-0 on a particular day lets you breathe a whole lot easier. I write-up 10 games a month here at SBL with the hope that even the small volume can help supplement larger cards. And with a couple losses in a row coming into Tuesday, we were in danger of falling into the red for the first time in 2015. Three under winners helps build that cushion up a little bit and now we go for a fourth win in a row with a single play on Friday. The Milwaukee Brewers host the Washington after stunning the Nationals with a walk-off victory last night.
I’m writing about the Nats, which means Jordan Zimmermann must be starting. Zimm looks to bounce back following his worst start of the season, where he allowed 4 runs on 10 hits against the Cubs. Chicago got the ball in play (just 3 K’s) and in the air against Zimmermann. And while none of the 15 fly balls left the yard, many fell in for hits in a tough day for the Washington starter. But those days will happen and it just means that Zimmermann probably took some time to refocus on his approach ahead of his start against Milwaukee. Why shouldn’t we expect things to come right back to normal and see another JZ quality start? That is, at least seven innings with two runs or less. I’ve got no answer for that one.
The only small concern I have with backing the Nats as a bargain roadie is that Mike Fiers might match Zimmermann. Since the second week in May, Fiers’ ERA has dwindled with each start – from 5.46 to 4.06. He hasn’t surrendered more than two earned runs in any of the six outings despite striking out fewer batters. He’s issued less walks, but the good run has a bit of a lucky feel to it. His WHIP still hovers around one and a half and he’s given up 37 hits in the 32.1 innings that have made up the strong run.
Nothing’s impossible here, but I only can imagine Milwaukee winning this game if the under comes in. If the game goes over, it will almost certainly be because Washington knocks Milwaukee around. If any book offers a Brewers’ team total of 4, take your money there. But for the sake of making a single play I’ll forget my reservation and take Washington straight up. If you’re looking for the safer play, sprinkle in some under. There’s a decent shot you’ll wind up 2-0.
Free Pick: Nationals -104
YTD: 8-4-2 +3.36
2014: 45-28-3 +9.02