I was all set to accept just a runline win last night, had Boston held onto its shutout and won 1–0. Instead, the Twins scored twice in the seventh after having two men gunned down at the plate earlier in the game and held on to win, 2–1, cashing big on the moneyline.
Kyle Gibson had Boston swinging over sliders all night and dotted his fastball in and out. It was the sort of performance the Twins’ front office needed out of him if the plan is to make a trade, but the win got Minnesota to within seven in the division and the Twins still seem to be picking up momentum.
Minnesota has won seven out of 10, 16 out of 20 and 22 out of 30 heading into Friday night’s test against Chris Sale. The Boston starter is the reason you can get Minnesota as much as +300 at certain shops.
I like Minnesota in this game but it took me some deliberating before deciding exactly how I want to play it. The Twins are very clearly playing with confidence and a certain tenacity right now. Their lineup is deep and the starting pitching is getting the job done. I do fear the bullpen blowing a late lead, though.
Meanwhile, Sale has been incredible but I’m starting to feel like he’s due for a bad one, not for any other reason than he’s been so good for so long now. Minnesota’s offense could be the one that trips him up.
I’ll play some Minnesota +300 but I’m not going to count on Sale suffering. I’m a lot more keen to fade Boston’s offense, which is in the middle of a more pronounced slump, just as Minnesota’s is in the middle of a surge.
But before I made any plays, I had to be sure Lance Lynn has a chance tonight, I think he does, based on his recent track record. He hasn’t been very good this year but he’s been ok lately. He’s gone five innings and given up three runs in each of his last two starts and went five and gave up just three hits and no earned runs on June 20 against the Red Sox at Target Field.
Mitch Moreland has taken the last two games off for Boston, a little curiously. Unless there’s something bigger there, he’ll be back in the lineup tonight and should help things. But the Red Sox are in a funk offensively and a team total of 5.5 is a big number for any team in any game.
So Boston going under that is my primary play. In addition, I’m playing Minnesota straight-up +300 and on the runline at +160. I don’t have a number available for +2.5 but if I did it would likely be my play here instead. Let’s get that Twins money again.
Play: Boston U5.5 (-120)