Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees September 4 Free Pick


The only add for Friday keeps us in the AL East where the Tampa Bay Rays visit the Yankees. It wasn’t that long ago when Tampa Bay was the team surprising everyone in the East. But the Blue Jays surge has made it feel further removed from actuality. The Yankees have been there all year and now with 30 games to go, New York sits 1.5 back of the Jays for the division crown. Toronto gets Baltimore over the weekend.

Free Pick

The Yanks face a challenge in the series opener, having to deal with Jake Odorizzi‘s great changeup. But while the 25-year-old got off to such a great start this season before an injury started slowing him down and now his sblseason sits in a limbo of sorts. His second below-average start in his last four the last time out against Kansas City bumped his ERA up to 3.18 and I bet there’s a little September motivation for Odorizzi to end the season with a 2 in front of that number. The run must start against a team that has touched him up a little bit this season (7 runs in 12.1 innings). But I’m a believer in this kid’s stuff and I’ll take him in any spot where a quality start gets the job done. In this case, with Luis Severino tossing against his Rays’ lineup, just that should cash an under ticket.

We’re working with just five starts to assess Severino heading into this start against Tampa Bay but it feels like plenty to know what sort of result we’ll get. He’s thrown exactly six innings in all five of those starts and hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of them. Severino allowed a single run to Boston, two to Cleveland, the three to Toronto and he’s given up just another one in his last two combined outings against the Indians and Braves. Tampa’s offense compares more favorably to Atlanta, which Severino shutout for six innings despite walking three in his last start. Eight full runs to work with is just another quality under play that we’re used to playing here.

Free Pick: Under 8 -115

YTD: 21-17-4 -0.31

2014: 45-28-3 +9.02

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