Aaron Sanchez pitched us to a great start in June. Now we’ll try to stay under another total to get things rolling again. A couple of struggling starters face each other in Minnesota. But I’m thinking that both have an opportunity to make a turn for the better on Sunday afternoon.
Tyler Duffey has been hit seriously in his last three starts. Like, all over the yard. Duffey has given up 28 hits and 16 runs in his last three outings – each equally as bad. The first two came against Toronto and Kansas City and he got knocked around in the Oakland Coliseum last week. He very well may have to come up with something promising today if he wants to stay with the big club. But I think he can against a light-hitting Tampa Bay offense, despite ‘s hot hand. Duffey was great in his first four starts this season, posting a 1.85 ERA against some lesser competition. If playing today’s under is crazy, it’s because of Duffey. But I see a little bit of bounce-back value here. If you’re really against T-Duff here, the Rays moneyline is sitting there at a decent price, going for the series sweep.
Drew Smyly got absolutely rocked in his last start at Kansas City, which is terribly hard for me to believe because his one-hit, 11 strikeout gem at Fenway Park is still very much in the front of my mind. The guy has terrific stuff and it’s usually just a matter of whether he’s around the zone with the heater. He’s only walked one each of his last two times out so I expect him to just enjoy a much easier opponent today and continue to pour in strikes, this time with much more success. The Twins have scored just six runs in the first two games of this series and Smyly is probably the nastiest matchup that’s yet to come. It’s a bit of a goofy spot, but I like this under enough to play it for half a unit.
Free Pick: Under 9.0 -110
YTD: 12-8-1 +3.17
2015: 31-25-5 +1.09
2014: 45-28-3 +9.02