Happy July 4th and happy Felix Day! My 4th has been about as Un-American as it gets, forgetting the day all together until this afternoon here in Poland where my Uganda Little League team took down a team from Germany representing the USA. But we’re doing all of this to try and get to America. Either way, this isn’t about me — let’s just get another winner early on in July.
If you’ve followed picks any of the last couple years you know that I feel that pretty much once July hits a bettor’s opportunities are limited. The numbers get tighter and the opportunities to get an edge come few and far between. That means if you play in large quantity you can really hope to just break even or make small profits as the season goes. But the real chance to gain units is early. That time has passed for us, which isn’t good news considering we’re only up 2.72 units on the whole season. I think there’s a bit of value out in Oakland where Kendall Graveman will be the starter to oppose Felix.
Another youngster to come onto the scene for the A’s, Graveman has been fantastic, posting a 3.47 ERA and a WHIP just under 1.40. But its his consistency I’m impressed with. And that consistency makes me a real believer in his ability to shut down the poor offensive clubs. The Mariners qualify as a poor offensive club, which means I’m booking Graveman for another seven inning outing – something that he’s done in each of his last five times out (including one eight-inning performance mixed in). Assuming he can nail down a quality start, we’ve got a great shot at hitting an already low under with Felix on the other side.
Considering the guy has given up 15 runs in two poor starts in the first half, it’s a testament to how well he’s pitched in the rest of the games. Hernandez has a league-leading 10 wins with an ERA just over 3.00 and a WHIP at about 1.00. He fired seven great innings in his last start against Oakland in early May and he’s certainly accustomed to doing that consistently against his division rival. Neither offenses impress me at all, both pitchers do. The number is a small one, but it’s small for a reason. No fear taking this one at even money.. but play it for half.
Free Pick: Under 6.5 +100 (for 0.5 units)
YTD: 11-7-3 +2.72
2014: 45-28-3 +9.02