I’m adding a second play to the card this evening and we’re going out West where the Giants are starting to feel a little pressure from beneath in the National League wild card. San Fran is still on top of the race between non-division leaders, but the Cardinals have glided to within half a game (even in the loss column) and the New York Mets just won’t go away. The reigning National League champions have won three straight and are within a game and a half of the Giants. So while they haven’t relinquished anything yet, the Giants must feel the increasing possibility of doing so and being left out of October all together after losing four of five. San Fran will turn to Jeff Samardzija at Coors tonight.
I was keen on the under last night simply because of the huge number, but failed to pull the trigger. That was unfortunate because the San Fran offense continued to struggle, managing just two hits all night against the unspectacular Chad Bettis. Matt Moore just had one rough inning himself and the Rockies won 6-0. San Fran’s offense has struggled lately (six runs in the last four games) and the Giants gave Buster Posey the night off because he’s been sputtering so badly. He’s actually listed as doubtful at Vegas Insider, but I can’t seem to find a reason why anywhere else.
I’m not assuming Posey is out tonight, but am hoping the Monday off hasn’t cleared his head too effectively because the under 11.5 looks nice with Tyler Anderson on the hill for Colorado. The rookie fired 6.1 shutout innings against the Dodgers his last time out (on 10 ground balls) and has put up some impressive overall numbers this season in 15 starts. He gave up just four hits in six innings on the Fourth of July at AT&T Park, something he has the chance to replicate tonight given his opponent’s recent struggles. In his 15 starts, Anderson has given up more than four earned runs once and that came in seven innings against the Cubs. The lefty has been consistently good so far and with Samardzija in the midst of a nice run on the other side, I can’t stay away from such a big number.
I also lean Tampa Bay and the over in San Diego but this and the White Sox will be it for tonight. Both for half a unit.
Gut Says: Under 11.5 (-105)
YTD: 31-22-1 +4.40
2015: 31-25-5 +1.09
2014: 45-28-3 +9.02