This week started well with a no-sweat under in Cincinnati. We’ve passed on the last two days but one matchup is offering just a little too much value to stay away for a third day in a row. A few shops have posted a total of 8.0 for the Giants and Diamondbacks.
Neither lineup looks particularly scary at the outset, but San Francisco and Arizona have scored the fourth and fifth-most runs in the National League 30 percent of the way into 2016. The Giants are really just a never-ending string of on-base guys. From Span to Panik to Duffey to Posey to Pence, facing San Fran requires the ability to throw lots of strikes with more than a couple pitches. Zack Greinke will be the one tonight. He’s been hit hard two, even three times since beginning his tenure with Arizona and those rough outings still weigh heavily on his overall numbers. But Greinke has looked more himself as the season has gone on. He’s thrown two straight quality starts and is three starts removed from 6.2 innings against these very Giants, when he allowed just one run. I’m not too concerned with Zack’s pair of seven-run outings and do anticipate vintage Greinke tonight.
His opponent Johnny Cueto has started quite well for his new team, posting five quality starts in seven chances thus far for the Giants. That also includes seven innings against the lineup he’s due to face again tonight. And, like Greinke, he’s riding back-to-back quality starts coming into this one.
This is a fishy number, but it seems too valuable to pass on two aces going at each other with a number like 8-flat. I’ll wearily play this one for 0.4 units for the action if nothing else. Enjoy the game.
Free Pick: Under 8.0 -110
YTD: 9-6-1 +2.39
2015: 31-25-5 +1.09
2014: 45-28-3 +9.02