It’s been a long hiatus since my last pick, but I’m back in July with some more spots. The mid-season grind has been a bit of a struggle but that’s what it’s all about. You’ll go through long stretches of good and bad betting a baseball season due to law of large numbers alone. It’s the nature of an 162-game season. So let’s hope things take a turn in July after the time off. We’re going out to Coors Field, where it’s always fun to take those unders. And that is the plan for Monday night.
The Padres will travel to Denver to take on the Rockies in a matchup of the two worst teams in the NL West and two teams that have particularly struggled as of the last month or so. After a promising start to the season, Colorado has completely lost it after injuries to both Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki. Nolan Arenado also shouldn’t be lost in the mix. Tulo and Arenado are back, but Car-Go remains out. And his value as a power left-handed bat hurts the Rockies’ lineup quite a bit. The Padres had the Lincecum no-hit fiasco mixed in with some shake-up in their front office. And they just haven’t been scoring any runs. And that’s the biggest reason why I like the under on a big number tonight.
Tyler Matzek gets the start for Colorado – just his sixth career. But he’s had a very solid start to his rookies season after going into the sixth inning in all but one of his outings. He went a complete five in that stray start. Matzek’s strikeout numbers have been solid, save one start against the Dodgers. And his WHIP is a respectable 1.35. He’s thrown at home twice. The first time out he went seven innings against Atlanta. And he gave up five in 5.1 against Milwaukee the second. San Diego should be a heck of a lot easier than either of those matchups and I really like Matzek to have a good outing throwing from the left side.
He goes against Ian Kennedy who is just a steady sailor. He rarely ever gives up more than four runs and will almost always throw until the sixth or seventh inning. With a number as big as 10.5, if there’s one pitcher I like and another that I feel really good about giving me a solid start, that’s usually enough to pull the trigger. And I think that’s exactly what we have here. It will take a Matzek blow-up or the Rockies’ offense to explode to lose this under play. Plug your nose at Coors.
Free Pick: Under 10.5 (-110)
YTD: 22-18-1 +0.88