San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies August 14 Free Pick


Coors Field hosts some Wednesday afternoon baseball with a decent pitching matchup between two solid arms. Jorge De La Rosa opens as a -155 favorite against young Andrew Cashner with a total of 9.5.

Free Pick

Splits become a primary tool of analysis in this matinee matchup. Jorge De La Rosa takes the ball first as the home pitcher. When that jdlrhappens, the Rockies usually win. De La Rosa is 7-1 with a 2.59 ERA at Coors Field this year. What’s slightly unusual is that his batting average against is actually slightly higher at home. This also may be a product of the consensus idea that everybody’s BAA is higher at Coors Field. His just isn’t much higher than anywhere else, which makes him special. The day/night split should be taken cautiously but De La Rosa’s are extreme. The left-hander is 5-0 with a 1.42 ERA during the day this season while he’s just 6-6 with an ERA over 4.00 at night. His three year numbers are essentially even, however; so digest those numbers how you will. The fact of the matter is that De La Rosa is a tough test when teams visit Coors Field and he has had success against San Diego this year (who hasn’t?). De La Rosa has allowed just under a hit an inning against the Padres (16 innings pitched, 15 hits allowed). It could be a long afternoon for the weak San Diego lineup against the southpaw.

De La Rosa makes Colorado an enticing play but the reason I suggest backing the Rockies here is Andrew Cashner‘s ineffectiveness on the road. Cashner does not pitch well away from the spacious Petco Park. Not only has this been fairly common of most San Diego pitchers in recent memory, most young pitchers don’t pitch well away from home to begin with. Cashner is no exception this far into his career. As an away starter, Cashner’s ERA (5.05) is more than double that of his home mark. He also hasn’t exactly shut down the Colorado lineup in limited opportunities this season. Cashner has allowed 17 hits in 14 innings pitched this year to the tune of seven earned runs. The Rockies have been playing very well lately with the exception of Tuesday evening. They could be in for a nice day against a young pitcher that has yet to prove himself on the road or down the stretch of a full MLB season. Cashner makes his 20th start of the season versus the Rocks.

I like Colorado in this spot with what seems like most all of the numbers pointing in its direction. I hesitate to lay the full runline with a home team with the fear of a one run win with only eight at-bats. Laying one run seems to make a lot of sense here to cut down on the juice and avoid any backdoor shenanigans.

Free Pick: Colorado -1 (-113)

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