Padres @ Diamondbacks April 24 Free Pick


Five days ago I previewed the Diamondbacks and Padres from Petco Park and I recommended backing Zack Greinke against Jhoulys Chacin.

Greinke pitched better than I figured he would but Chacin came up with a WTF game and beat us, 1-0. Now the same two guys face each other in Arizona with an even higher total.

Free Pick

Jhoulys Chacin

Greinke lost his second straight but at least got the eight-inning complete game for his efforts, the eighth complete game across baseball in April. He gave up only five hits and didn’t allow a runner past first base all day.

Except for one pitch to Erick Aybar. Aybar (.164) homered on a 3-2 fastball in the bottom of the eighth to provide San Diego’s, and the game’s, only run. It is Aybar’s his home run on the season and came after Greinke got ahead 0-2.

Otherwise, San Diego managed only those four hits, including one by the pitcher Chacin, and never put a running into scoring position. Greinke even pitched around an error that put Chacin on for a second time. He struck out six on the day.

He owns San Diego and knows it. I don’t see why a Padres’ team total should be any higher than 2.5 tonight.

But Jhoulys Chacin carries a lot of confidence into this start. He won’t throw eight shutout innings again, but he might make things difficult on Arizona for a second time in a week if he keeps locating that fastball.

Everything is predicated on the straight one with Chacin and he really spotted the fastball well five days ago in San Diego. The Snakes mustered three hits and Chacin walked one. There hasn’t been a game with fewer scoring chances than that one last week; now we’re running it back less than a week later with an awfully high total.

Arizona really isn’t an option this time around, trading somewhere between -170 and -180. But that under 9.0 really looks like something we can work with.

When both starters feel as good as Greinke and Chacin will feel coming into this one, it’s a lot for the offense to overcome.

In Greinke’s case, he should have the confidence to mix four, five pitches awfully thoroughly. Chacin should really throw the ball downhill and attack batters, which is when he is at his best. If he’s putting that fastball on both sides of the plate, it will set up the slider and cutter out of the zone.

Let’s play the under 9.0 knowing that if we can get anything close to what happened last week from either starting pitcher, we should be fine.

Free Pick: Under 9.0 (-110)

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