Welcome back and happy Monday, handicappers. Was AWOL for the second half of last week but it wasn’t some sort of extended long weekend, simply the type of selectivity you’re paying me the big bucks for. Monday’s card isn’t so saucy, but we’ve got a play or two as we approach the end of April.
If you were here in 2014 you (legally) bet a lot of Jordan Zimmermann, made some good money doing it and rightfully paid taxes on those winnings. Zimm’s with Detroit now and he’s dealing in his new, friendlier home that is Tiger Stadium. Get this: a 0.00 ERA going into his last start in April. He’s pretty much been the same old Jordan, though. He gave up eight hits his last time out and will continue to give up knocks. He’s just so consistent, such a steadfast competitor and is on one of those runs that he seemingly has every season. Let’s ride him when he’s got the hot hand. He has that perfect ERA through three starts but very well could be at his best tomorrow against a pretty soft Athletics’ lineup after traversing some much tougher offenses.
Our last play was an under winner behind a strong performance from Kendall Graveman. We’ve had some success backing KG and he very well could turn into my Zimmermann of 2016, as he’s consistently undervalued in betting markets. I liked him so much at Yankee Stadium last week because of his tendency to get ground balls with the sinking fastball. It may seem a little silly to back the same guy in Tiger Stadium and, in fact, I don’t particularly love him tomorrow. But I certainly like him enough to make a small play on the under 8.0 in Detroit.
The under is a play for a quarter of a unit. But I’m going to parlay that same under with the Mets moneyline for another quarter. My thinking is rather elementary after watching the Reds take three on the chin against the Cubbies this weekend. They aren’t scoring against Syndergaard tomorrow; and therefore, I believe they’ll struggle to win the game. That parlay will pay +180.
Free Pick: Under 8.0 -110 (to win 0.25) // +180 parlay with Mets -210 (risk 0.25)
YTD: 4-2-1 +1.99
2015: 31-25-5 +1.09
2014: 45-28-3 +9.02