It probably doesn’t take long to figure out what direction I’m going in this game once you see the starting pitching matchup. Kyle Lohse visits Wade Miley for a matchup between two of the more steady and undervalued starting pitchers in the National League. I’ve had lots of successes backing each of these guys in some way or another over the least two years on Sport Bet Listings. And I love the spot they have tomorrow against another line that just seems too high.
The Brewers scored another nine runs last night and have been rolling all year without much sign of slowing down. But Milwaukee will run up against lefty Wade Miley. Miley isn’t unhittable by any means, but he doesn’t have bad outings. In fact, his last time out at Houston is about as bad as he gets – allowing four runs in just five innings pitched. Miley has allowed more than four runs just once this entire year – an April game against Colorado. He’s a quality start machine and will come from the left side, which Milwaukee doesn’t like. The Brewers are hitting 26th best in the league against left-handers. And they’ll have to deal with Miley’s deception in his spacious home ballpark.
Kyle Lohse is the equivalent from the right side. After throwing his one bad outing of the year two starts ago, Lohse dominated the Mets with eight scoreless, one-hit innings. There’s really nothing new to ever report about Lohse. You always have to expect he’ll go six or seven innings and allow three runs or less. And that’s especially the case tonight against an Arizona offense that doesn’t really pop a whole lot of punch aside from their stud at first base.
It’s an interesting line with a total of 8.5 with the juice on the over. Both starters are pitching in their worse split – Miley is better on the road and Lohse better at home. But I really don’t put a whole lot of stock into that at this point in the year – nor really in any individual season. Neither starter has great career numbers against the opposing roster, but the same holds true for career average numbers. And if those are factors driving this total up, I’ll be happy to take advantage. I love to have the 9.0 with the opportunity to still push if either side pushes four across. And with the juice on the over, it’s not a bad buy. Lay another 30 cents and make this thing go to double-digits to be a loser.
Free Pick: Under 9 (-130)
YTD: 22-16-1 +3.28