Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets July 12 Free Pick


Koji Uehara disappointed in the ninth inning of our last play by allowing the White Sox to tie the game in their last ups. We eventually had to settle for a push with a Red Sox walk-off win that wasn’t enough to fully cover the one run that I laid to get the better price. Saturday’s play goes on in Flushing, where the Mets host the Marlins. And it’s a matchup between two pitchers who are having interesting seasons for two sides that are exceeding expectations in the NL East. The Mets are small favorites in a game that slates Tom Koehler against Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Free Pick

I had a bit higher expectations of Tom Koehler than what his 2014 season has proved to be thus far. But the season is far from over, and Koehler has shown the ability to be a very serviceable second or third starter. Consistency is the key with Koehler. That and avoiding the disastrous inning that blows up his entire outing. Koehler has two starts where he allowed seven earned runs that are really doing a number to his 3.98 ERA. One of those starts came the last time out against Arizona. And when he had his first bad outing, he responded the next time out with seven strong innings against Arizona. A pretty powerful arm with swing and miss stuff, Koehler stacks up well against the Mets. And I expect him to bounce back with another really strong start on the road in New York on Saturday. He’s given up just two runs in 15 innings of work against the Mets so far this season. tk

Dice-K Matsuzaka will make another start in his resurgent season. And also his third outing against Miami this season. His first came out of the bullpen, when he gave up two runs without recording an out. And his first start went pretty well, with only one run allowed in 5.1 innings of work. His WHIP is a solid 1.32 and he dazzled Atlanta his last time out. But I don’t necessarily have the most confidence in him going into a game against a team that’s seen his 2014 stuff twice already. In a matchup where both teams are pretty familiar with the opposing starting pitcher, I’ll definitely give the check mark to the younger, livelier Koehler over a pitcher who is just trying to work his way back into the big league’s.

Miami is the road underdog play tomorrow.

Free Pick: Miami (+105)

YTD: 23-18-2 +1.88

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