Another win on the fifth has July sizzling. So that means we’re already on our fourth play here on the eighth. The last couple picks have been on conventional sides (what does that even mean? I’m not really sure). But today we’re going with a play that might make the near-sited junky feel a bit queasy. That’s because it involves Rick Porcello. Even worse, we’re betting it goes under. Plug your nose!
So I’ve been ‘capping this entire season without watching a single game. Yup, I haven’t seen a single inning of professional baseball this year, which is completely converse to how I usually ‘cap. I’ve read about how Porcello has been an absolute disaster pretty much the whole year, and especially of late. He’s maintained good command (at least in terms of limiting BB’s) but teams have been hitting him like crazy. He got knocked around up in Toronto his last time out to the tune of seven earned in two innings. Those seven runs included three dingers. If balls are going out of the yard (and they are — 16 on the season) there isn’t a whole lot to blame on bad luck. But I refuse to believe he’s been quite this bad and I’m looking to capitalize on some regression and possibly an inflated number going up against a Marlins lineup without Giancarlo Stanton. Plus, Ryan Hanigan says he has some ideas for his starting pitcher. And when Ryan Hanigan speaks, you listen. Though I doubt that Vegas did.
I’m not expecting Porcello to dazzle, but four runs in five, six innings should be sufficient with such a big total on the board. Another reason is that I secretly love Tom Koehler. He can be susceptible to the long ball (he also gave up three to Toronto last month), which is a small worry at Fenway. But when he’s keeping the ball in the yard he’s an extremely dependable and effective pitcher. He almost always gets his six innings and seldom gets lit up for big innings. I like the matchup with Boston and fully expect a quality start. With Hanigan working his magic on the other side of things, I think this game actually ends up as a sort of poor man’s pitching duel at the Fens.
Free Pick: Under 9 -105
YTD: 13-7-3 +4.22
2014: 45-28-3 +9.02