An afternoon play that I’m just getting to write up this morning so I will get right into it here. Both the Dodgers and Blue Jays entered game one of their series last night at .500. A 5-2 home win has Toronto at 16-15 and the Dodgers 14-15. Clayton Kershaw gets the ball for Los Angeles today against RA Dickey. There are a couple angles I would consider to play this one.
Anytime Kershaw is on the bump you automatically consider the other side will go low. He’s never made a start against Toronto, at least this Toronto team, and the only guy with much of any experience against Kershaw is Troy Tulowitzki from this days in the NL West. Because of that, I’m thinking the Blue Jays will really struggle the first time through the lineup. But they could get to the ace after that. Kershaw has feasted on weak lineups so far this season and Toronto will represent his biggest challenge as a team that can really hit the fastball. The Blue Jays really struggled against Chris Sale because he mixed his off-speed stuff so effectively. Kershaw relies a little more on the fastball, but if takes a page from Sale’s scouting report he has more than enough stuff to keep the Jays’ power off-balance.
If I were to pin the Jays at two or three runs, I would be very tempted to take the over in this one. That would still mean I’d need four or five from the Dodgers against Mr. Dickey. The 4-3 LA win is a concern when it comes to the run line, but I’ll take my chances there with the decent possibility that they manage even more than a five-spot. With Kershaw on the other side, LA should be able to score enough off of Dickey to cover the 1.5 line, even on the road. Just for a half unit though.
Free Pick: Dodgers (-1.5) -105
YTD: 7-6-1 +1.39
2015: 31-25-5 +1.09
2014: 45-28-3 +9.02