Though I pegged San Francisco to do more of the scoring in game two, the beauty of taking the over is that you can ultimately depend on both sides. Kansas City came through with a single large inning and ended up going on to win the game 7-2, which cashed our over bet and gave us a heck of a better series to watch moving to San Francisco. With the series knotted at one, Jeremy Guthrie and Tim Hudson face off in a pivotal game three by the Bay.
Of every game in the series, game three might see the most lopsided line. The Giants not only play at home, but definitely have the better starting pitcher going with Hudson holding an edge over Guthrie. San Francisco is a -128 favorite to take a 2-1 series lead. And I like them to do just that.
Tim Hudson has pitched really well in his two postseason starts, despite just a so-so ERA. Huddy dueled with Jordan Zimmermann in game two of the NLDS – a game San Francisco ultimately won. He went into the eighth inning of that one and gave up just one run. He was on track for a similar line in his start against St. Louis in game three of the LCS. In fact, Bruce Bochy had so much confidence in his 39-year-old that he may have left him in a little too long. Hudson gave up a run in each of the last two innings of that game, but he still managed to get through 6.1 innings with a level of ease. For Hudson, it’s nothing new. He pounds the strike zone with quality pitches and uses his splitter and slider to induce a whole lot of ground balls. While the Royals aren’t the best matchup for Hudson because of how they can run and just focus on putting the ball in play, I still like the way he’s pitching. Unless the BABIP gods aren’t kind to him, I see no reason why Hudson doesn’t come through with another quality start.
Meanwhile, Jeremy Guthrie settled down quickly in his only playoff outing against the Baltimore Orioles. He gave up a run early, but ended up tossing five really good innings. I like Guthrie too. And his veteran presence along with a fresh arm should help Kansas City in this game, but I’m not sure I like him to outduel Hudson. There isn’t a whole lot to say. Jeremy Guthrie is an all right pitcher, but he’s not great. And I just expect Hudson to be better at home in a big spot. I’ve had the Giants in game three from the start. Let’s keep the perfect series rolling!
Free Pick: San Francisco (-128)
YTD: 44-28-3 +9.14
kansas city royals • San Francisco Giants