So the master plan with the Nationals didn’t work out over the weekend. Zimm got hit hard by the Brew Crew to drop us down a unit plus a little extra juice. We’re going right back to Miller Park to return to the unders that have been kind lately. The Royals are in town to take on Milwaukee’s finest.
Chris Young helped us win one of those three unders last week with another great start, this one against the Minnesota Twins. Young went 6.1 scoreless and continued to get fly ball outs. Twelve of the 22 batters he faced hit it in the air and he gave up just 1 hit over those 6.1 frames. Now in Milwaukee to face one of the weaker National League clubs, Young should see similar success. Look for another quality start, if not only because he can’t get through a full 6 innings. It would be extra nice if he could find his usually good control. Young has walked at least 2 in each of his last five starts after putting up zero in three of his first five.
Matt Garza’s numbers have appeared to take a slight decline in his age 31 season, but look closer and there’s a lot of reason to like what he could do against Kansas City on Tuesday. Garza’s numbers are inflated due to one start where he gave up 10 earned against the Mets – an outing I picked him up for a spot fantasy start. He wasn’t great in the two starts following that one and perhaps there was something going on, physically or mentally. Either way, he’s put that rough patch behind him to pitch like the old Matt Garza in his last 3 starts. Two earned runs in 18 innings are all with a WHIP of exactly 1.00. He also hasn’t walked any in the last two times out. He’ll enjoy a Kansas City lineup that will have to be without either Kendrys Morales or Eric Hosmer and will feature Chris Young at the bottom of its lineup.
With both starters pitching so well lately in a spot that calls for a low-scoring type of game, I think the first 5 innings total poses some value here. At worst, getting a full 4.0 gives me confidence that this one won’t go over. Let’s feel good to lock this one in while we can.
Free Pick: Under 4 (First 5 Innings) -110
YTD: 8-5-2 +2.32
2014: 45-28-3 +9.02