Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox July 18 Free Pick


Third and final play will actually be the first to begin on Saturday. The only afternoon game we’re playing is out in the Windy City. The Royals sure didn’t get much of a break during the All-Star break and they opened up the second half with a double-header to boot. The two teams split a day-night twin billing on Friday and get back at it Saturday with Jose Quintana playing host to Jeremy Guthrie.

Free Pick

So Jeremy Guthrie’s numbers on the season look a whole lot worse than he’s actually been. A lot of it has to do with one start against the Yankees all the way back in May when he gave up 11 earned runs in one inning, yup that’ll do it. He also gave up six against Seattle about a month later but if you read in between those two starts what you have is the Guthrie that usually takes the ball every five days. He hasn’t given up more than three runs in any of those starts and even pitched very well in the three starts before he was bombed in New York. That means he’s pitched well in 10 of his last 12 starts and that’s what I’m more concerned with when I’m betting in an isolated game he’ll start. sbl

Then there’s Jose Quintana, who I feel like is generally a little overrated by Vegas despite the fact that I never seem to find myself fading him and occasionally do back. As expected, he’s doing well in pitching statistics that have to do completely with pitching (3.69 ERA and 1.28 WHIP) but not so well in win/losses. Like Guthrie, his numbers are also a little skewed due to a nine earned runs allowed outing back in April. But he’s allowed no more than three runs in nine straight starts and 14 of 15. His only start against the Royals was a good one at the end of April right after that terrible outing against the Tigers. Maybe the total of 8.5 looks appropriate when you take each starting pitcher’s season stats. Look a little closer and I think we’ve got a nice value play on the under, especially with some reduced juice. Cheers to a sweep on Saturday!

Free Pick: Under 8.5 -105

YTD: 14-8-4 +4.72

2014: 45-28-3 +9.02

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