Alright, alright. The Buccos came up big for us against that Atlanta ‘pen, which means that’s a much needed two wins in a row. That also means that we win today and we can call that a win streak. And I think we have a very solid play today out at Yankee Stadium. Brandon McCarthy and the Yanks are playing for their postseason lives against the bothersome Dallas Keuchel and the Houston Astros. New York is a -165 favorite to win and at least salvage a game in this three-game set. Houston looks to sweep away the Yankees on the road.
Like many people who were able to look past his tough ERA and home run numbers expected, Brandon McCarthy has been terrific since arriving in New York. The Yankees’ front office put more stock in his peripheral numbers with Arizona, which were great, and that assessment has seemed to pay off. McCarthy has allowed more than two earned runs in just one of seven starts he’s made with the Yankees. And that only other outing came at Texas where he gave up four runs in six inning. In light of all the injuries to the New York rotation, Brandon McCarthy has just about saved the season – or at least got it to where it is now. New York is 5-2 in his seven starts.
So why shouldn’t we assume he’ll throw another quality start on Thursday? The Astros have shown some offensive prowess this season, but they aren’t any scarier than the majority of McCarthy’s opponents since coming over to the AL. Plain and simple, I think McCarthy just keeps rolling along because that’s what he does. He’ll get plenty of ground balls at Yankee Stadium and avoid making a mistake pitch to Chris Carter. And that’s most of the battle right there.
Dallas Keuchel hasn’t been too shabby, either. The Houston lefty has enjoyed a breakout season that certainly started a little better than it did in the second part of the season. But it’s not as if the Yankees’ offense – which has only scored more runs that Boston in the American League – should really scare us at this point in the season. Keuchel is pretty darn good. And in a spot where he just needs to be mediocre, he’s as good of a bet as you’ll likely find.
This is one of those games where it’s tough for a ‘book to hang a 7.0 or even 7.5, but an 8.0 just appears like a very safe bet. It’s hard to explain exactly how I feel other than that I’ve been in situations like this hundreds of times and I just feel very good going into this game. These spots don’t always work out, but the majority of the time they do. Bet with confidence.
Free Pick: Under 8 (-120)
YTD: 30-23-2 +2.31