When I wrote about the Twins a few days ago when they got us a nice straight up win as the underdog against Tampa Bay and I felt as though Minnesota was ready for a sustained surge over the next couple weeks. With one more play left in August, I feel just as confident tonight as Mike Pelfrey goes up against Mike Fiers. This time, Minnesota is a home dog.
The Twins dropped the last game in Tampa before opening up a home series against the ‘Stros with a win last night. Kyle Gibson tossed 5.2 innings of scoreless ball and the ‘pen finished off the shutout for a 3-0 win. Houston was once again without their young star Carlos Correa, who remains day-to-day with a faulty hamstring. He may be back tonight but if he doesn’t Houston’s lineup looks a little sparse without both he and George Springer and I like Pelfrey’s matchup in this one. Houston works plenty of walks and hits lots of homers – two things Pelfrey tries to limit every time he takes the mound. If he is able to make Houston put the ball in play and induce weak contact, it could be another good start in what’s been a very nice season for the veteran.
Miguel Sano should be back in the lineup for Minnesota after a day off yesterday. With their rookie rested and Mike Fiers potentially not, the Twins appear to be in a nice spot. Fiers tossed a 134-pitch no-hitter his last time out, which is reason enough for a lot of people to want to fade the Houston starter in this spot. That list is lower down on reasons why for me tonight but it certainly plays into the equation. If indeed Fiers is a little fatigued tonight he may not be able to go deep into this one. And the biggest weakness of Houston’s ball club at the current time is its bullpen. Minnesota appears to be in a nice spot at home with a favorable pitching matchup, yet it remains a home underdog. Once again, we won’t play the plus moneyline but rather take a good opportunity to get a win without our side actually winning a game with the runline.
Free Pick: Twins (+1.5) -130
YTD: 20-16-4 -0.01
2014: 45-28-3 +9.02
houston astros • mike fiers • mike pelfrey • Minnesota Twins