Friday’s under winner last week makes it now three in a row after a 1-2 start to the last month of the MLB regular season. The goal is to finish what’s been a plus year out strong and so far, I’ve managed as much. Now it’s just not to screw it up. We’re going out to San Diego to make a play awfully similar to a winner in the middle of last week.
Last Thursday, I backed the San Diego Padres over the Phillies because of Robbie Erlin and his track record at Petco Park. He entered the game as a small -130 favorite against a pretty terrible Philadelphia team and delivered with a high quality start (6 IP, 1 ER). His Padres also walked away winners and the home favorite cashed for us.
Here we are on Tuesday with Erlin facing another pretty terrible team, at home, as a -130 favorite. I also don’t see any reason to deviate from what went right last week. My feelings toward Erlin are about the same. He’s a tricky little left-hander who pitches really well at home in the spacious Petco Park. Colorado has completely came undone, which isn’t exactly any type of new development. So I don’t exactly feel worried they’ll put together a whole lot tougher of an effort than Philadelphia did. The Rockies are ready for their season to end and a regular season game on the road in front of a spotty San Diego crowd won’t do much to change that.
Then there’s Jorge De La Rosa and his extreme home/road splits. MLB bettors may be aware of the dominance that is a home De La Rosa. But just as much is the opposite when he’s anywhere else. Despite the park factors working against him at Coors Field, his ERA is more than two full runs higher on the road than at home. He gives up more hits, home runs, walks and just runs in general. And it’s been more than just a single-season trend. It’s also one I’m willing to bet on tomorrow. I’m taking Erlin for round two to keep the winning streak alive.
Free Pick: San Diego (-130)
YTD: 38-25-2 +8.11