We’re at the midpoint in September and playoff implications are aplenty. Then there are the “don’t forget about us!” series’s. The Cubs and Brewers find themselves in one after failing to keep pace with the rest of the most competitive division in baseball. Neither team has a chance to play spoiler in this series but plenty of young talent on either side will try and showcase its stuff in the last two weeks of the season. Edwin Jackson takes the ball against Wily Peralta in a game where oddsmakers have made Milwaukee a -135 home favorite.
Between football and other MLB games on Sunday it’s probably unlikely that you got the chance to tune into Reds/Brewers yesterday. I was lucky enough to see the last three innings and what a game it was. Carlos Gomez did it again by robbing Jay Bruce of a go-ahead, three-run homer in the top of the ninth inning and then Sean Halton hit his first career walk-off dinger in the bottom. All-in-all, Milwaukee scored in each of the last three frames to come from four behind and win it against a stingy Reds bullpen. Overall, very impressive and it’s a large part of why I like the Brew Crew in this spot tomorrow night.
It’s been a tough reason in Milwaukee but a solid crop of young talent is trying hard to make fans forget about the recent past and become optimistic about the future. They’re doing a pretty darn good job of it, too. The likes of Scooter Gennett, Halton and company have the Brewers playing inspired baseball. Carlos Gomez will run through a wall to prove that he’s one of the game’s most dynamic and talented outfielders and Matt Lucroy continues to try his best to be a leader and prove he’s a premier catcher. Overall, I like what this Brewers team is about in the last two weeks of the season and there’s a chance they put a hurt on Edwin Jackson Monday.
Jackson’s tough to figure out and it’s why I usually tend to avoid him at most costs. His numbers on the year aren’t impressive but you find many quality starts in his game log. He’s the type of guy that falls victim to the blowout in a few outings but, for the most part, pitches pretty effectively. I’m not sure we’ll see Jackson as motivated at Miller Park against the Brewers as we did the last time out against Cincinnati when he spoiled the Reds’ night. A potentially lackadaisical Jackson paired with a motivated Brewers team doesn’t bode well for Chicago.
I do really like Milwaukee in this spot. Enough for a play, too. Wily Peralta hasn’t been fantastic by any means but he has been pretty dependable for a quality start. I’m certainly fading Jackson more than I back Peralta. Do remember it’s the Brewers but I feel comfortable backing the Milwaukee lineup and fading Jackson’s reliability here. If you can get a nice price on Milwaukee -2.5 or a similar adjusted run line I’d advise a small play with potential for a Brewer blowout. For now I’ll lay the 1.0 and look for a multi-run victory for the home team.
Free Pick: Milwaukee -1 (+118)
2013 MLB: 24-15-3 +9.80