On the morning of October 31st I came to know the World Series would extend into November when I heard a BBC radio report that the Cubs beat the Indians in game five. The fact that I got a radio update on the World Series in Uganda is as good an idea as any to prove how big of a deal this year’s matchup is. I hope my sorry situation inspires some gratitude in those of you who taking in these games in the moment. I envy you all.
However, staying away from all the hoopla and eyeing these games objectively can at times help me find betting angles for you all. Though I haven’t had much to offer in the form of plays this postseason, our year remains a solid one – up over five units – and I’m committed to playing it out into November.
It’s hardly time to panic if you’re an Indians fan, but failing to close out a series is always unsettling for the team in the lead. Cleveland still comes out of Chicago up 3-2, which would have the city jumping had the games been won in any other order. But because the Tribe comes into this one off of a loss, I expect a tinge of tension to stir at Progressive Field tonight, where the home team needs a win to prevent a winner-take-all situation from emerging out of what was a commanding lead through four games. Perhaps some Cleveland fans are remembering all the taunting its fan base aimed at the Golden State Warriors with some regret now.
It also doesn’t help that the brains in Vegas favor a game seven, as the Cubs are a steady -140 on the road with Jake Arrieta opposing Josh Tomlin. For Arrieta, it’s the first time he makes a second start against any of the Cubs’ postseason opponents. He’s also coming off what was easily his best playoff start when he indulged in some mild flirting with a certain no-hitter and evened the series in a game two win. Tonight night will be his fourth road start this postseason.
Speaking of road starts, Josh Tomlin dazzled Wrigley Field in game three when he tossed 4.2 shutout innings en route to a 1-0 win that shifted the momentum in the series. He’ll come back home on just three days rest compared to Arrieta’s full five, but Tomlin threw only 58 pitches the last time and should be fine to give the Indians all they need of him tonight.
So who gets the best of whom? I’m not sure it’s sides you should be playing tonight because, in the situation the Cubs and Indians find themselves in, pitching talks. The 7.0 total doesn’t offer a ton of value, but I also don’t think you can go low enough in this spot. I’m going to play the under for a teeny, tiny quarter unit and will likely do the same if we’re lucky enough to get a game seven. Go Cubs!
Gut Says: Under 7.0 +100
YTD: 36-25-1 +5.17
2015: 31-25-5 +1.09
2014: 45-28-3 +9.02