A couple plays on Saturday but our first has the same type of feel to it as last night’s winner. The Detroit Tigers continue to play up and down baseball with Miguel Cabrera out of the lineup. But the good news is that they have their ace David Price on the mound on Saturday and that they already got their second half off to a good start with a win in game one of a series with the Orioles on Friday. Detroit is closer to -140 at most books at the moment but there are still a few out there dangling the home team at -130. Like the Cardinals last night, the best price on the Tigers is too good to pass up.
There’s little to analyze here to reinforce why we’re simply going ahead and taking the best price whenever a book teases it. David Price at home is simply too good to pass up at a bargain price. He allowed just one earned run in his last two outings combined before the break (15 innings pitched) and even added a scoreless frame that included two strikeouts in Cincinnati against the NL’s best. The guy is 9-2 with a WHIP just over 1.00 and a sub-3.00 ERA and he’s pitching for a contract extension, which both sides appear interested in. A man of his ability warrants a higher price tag, especially at home against competition that would be hard to actually consider better.
While Chris Tillman has continued pitching better after his terrible start to the season, his numbers still don’t compare to the last two seasons when he put up front-of-the-rotation type statistics. Tillman put together three straight starts of two earned runs or less allowed before the break but Detroit has still put runs on the board without their slugger in the lineup. Tillman’s good little run of late has me tempted to play the under too – and I do recommend it as a possible alternative to the side. But let’s not get too cute with this one. This one’s probably just a small play at -135 or -140, but I can’t help but lock in a normal sized play at the clearance price.
Free Pick: Detroit -130
YTD: 14-8-4 +4.72
2014: 45-28-3 +9.02