The Reds continue their winnings ways with another “W” over Arizona in game one of this series on Monday. Tuesday two left-handed aces get together for one of the best pitching matchups of the season that no one would have expected in March. Tony Cingrani plays host to Patrick Corbin where the Reds open as moderate home favorites with a total at 7.5.
Runs could be at a very high premium in this one with these two going. Patrick Corbin has burst onto the scene in his first full year in the rotation with Arizona – making the All-Star team and dominating competition all season. Corbin mixes several pitches – highlighted by a sneaky fastball and filthy slider to fool opponents. Cincinnati ranks in the middle of MLB against lefties so his handedness doesn’t particularly gain or lose Corbin many points here. Simply, I expect a dominant pitcher to continue to dominate a relatively weaker lineup that has struggled to score runs as of late, despite being at home in Great American. Corbin dazzled Cincy earlier this year when they matched up – scattering three hits over eight innings. Look for another great outing but maybe not quite as good this time around. Corbin has conceded slightly more lately as his young arm continues to work deeper and deeper into the dog days of the MLB season. Aside from that, not much to worry about with Corbin here.
Tony Cingrani has not received the accolades that Corbin has throughout the entire season but baseball fans are beginning to really watch this guy on a week to week basis now that he has fallen onto some more radars. Cingrani has done nothing but pump out quality start after quality start. The durable lefty goes six or seven innings almost every start and has given up more than three runs just once all season when he gave up four to the Cubs on May fourth. The consistency has been unbelievable and Cingrani hasn’t shown any signs of losing his groove anytime soon. The youngster has surrendered just one earned run over his last two outings and there is no reason to think the weak-hitting Arizona lineup should be able to get to Cingrani any better than any of the other lineups he has opposed this season.
Plain and simple, both pitchers should dominate this game. To me, there is a bit more uncertainty with Corbin because of the slight regression as of late but there isn’t enough of a chasm to warrant going with a team total. This total should certainly be only 7.0 and maybe even a small consideration to drop to 6.5. Either way, there’s value at 7.5 with two aces and quality arms in each bullpen to back them up.
Free Pick: Arizona/Cincinnati Under 7.5