Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez vs Jaime Munguia Betting Odds and Prediction

By Boxing

Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez vs Jaime Munguia Preview May 4th, 2024

WBO/IBF/WBA/WBC and Ring Magazine Super Middleweight Champion Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez returns to the ring this Saturday, May 4th to take on fellow Mexican and unbeaten former WBO Junior Middleweight Champion Jaime Munguia. The 12-rounder from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada can be seen live in most nations on pay-per-view. Alvarez last saw action in September when he beat former undisputed Jr. Middleweight Champion Jermell Charlo by a 12-round unanimous decision. Munguia last boxed in January when he stopped John Ryder in the ninth round to retain his WBC Silver Super Middleweight Title. Ryder met Alvarez in his previous outing in May and although he was dropped in the fifth round he went the distance in a unanimous decision defeat.

Alvarez vs Munguia Betting Odds

Here are the betting odds from online sportsbook (full review here).

  • Jaime Munguia +375
  • Saul Alvarez -550
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Check out our Canelo vs Munguia betting guide page for more information about betting on the fight.

My Pick

The 33-year-old Alvarez has beaten Caleb Plant, Callum Smith and Billy Joe Saunders for his latest collection of Super Middleweight Titles since 2020 and also defended various belts against Charlo, Ryder, Gennady Golovkin and Avni Ylidirim during that span. And let’s not forget his unanimous decision loss to Dmitry Bivol in May, 2022. He’s also beaten the likes of Rocky Fielding, Daniel Jacobs and Sergey Kovalev in the past five years.

Alvarez owns a 60-2-2 record with 39 Ko’s with his only other defeat being a majority decision to Floyd Mayweather in September, 2013. His two draws were a highly-disputed 12-round affair with Golovkin in the first meeting of their trilogy in 2017 as well as a four-round battle against Jorge Juarez back in 2006. Alvarez stands 5-feet-8-inches tall with a 70.5 inch and has a wealth of experience under his belt as he turned pro in 2005 when he was just 15 years old has 484 rounds in the bank since then.

He’s taken on and beaten several other tough opponents over the years such as Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., Amir Khan, Miguel Cotto, James Kirkland, Austin Trout, Erislandy Lara, Shane Mosley, Josesito Lopez, Kermit Cintron, Carlos Baldomir, and Alfredo Angulo. He’s also held world titles in the junior. middleweight, middleweight and light heavyweight divisions as well as minor belts as a welterweight.

Alvarez has good power as 65 per cent of his wins have been by stoppage but he’s gone the distance in his last four fights and in seven of his past 14. He also possesses a granite chin and quick hands. Bivol, Plant, Golovkin, Mayweather, Lara and Khan to some degree, showed that Canelo can be outboxed in stages as he has difficulty handling a quick, stiff jab and fluid movement. Even so, Alvarez is an above-average boxer-puncher who likes to go to the body but has a bit of difficulty with opponents who are mobile.

The 27-year-old Munguia of Tijuana definitely likes to stay active as this will be his 44th fight since turning pro in July, 2013 when he was a teenager. He enters the contest with a perfect mark of 43-0 with 34 Ko’s and first made a name for himself against Sadam Ali when he stepped up in class and stopped him in five rounds in May, 2018 for the WBO Jr. Middleweight Title. He then defended his belt against Liam Smith, Brandon Cook, Takeshi Inoue, Dennis Hogan and Patrick Allotey before moving up to middleweight.

At 160 lbs, he stopped Gary O’Sullivan in the 11th round in 2019 and then halted Tureano Johnson after six to win the vacant WBO Inter Continental Middleweight Title. He stopped Kamil Szeremeta after six rounds before beating Gabriel Rosado by unanimous decision and then halting D’Mitrius Ballard, Jimmy Kelly and Gonzalo Coria. Some of those fights highlighted Munguia’s defensive shortcomings but that’s a part of what makes him so exciting. The other part of his fan-friendly style is the fact he has dynamite in his fists as 79.1 per cent of his wins have come by stoppage. Munguia reportedly went 128-10 in the amateurs and now has 199 rounds of pro experience under his belt.

He entered the title fight against Sadam Ali in 2018 as a hungry boxer who wanted to make a name for himself on the world stage and he certainly did that. However, he struggled against Dennis Hogan and Takeshi Inoue as he went the distance with both of them and took quite a few shots. He also had trouble making the 154 lb weight limit and after five outings as a middleweight the 6-foot tall Munguia took his 72-inch reach up to super middleweight against Kelly but then moved back to middleweight. He fought Sergiy Derevyanchenko and Ryder at super middleweight last year and that appears to be where he’s going to stay for the time being.


Alvarez once fought the top names of his divisions but lately has been selecting Grade B opponents instead of Grade A foes such as David Benavidez or has chosen to fight boxers from other weight classes or those who have been somewhat inactive. Basically, he has been accused of cherry picking and it’s hard to argue against that point. Alvarez certainly isn’t the boxer he once was and the youthful Munguia definitely has the size and power to pull off a win here, but he has to go about it the right way. He needs to fight his usual aggressive style and make sure he doesn’t show Alvarez too much respect in the ring. Munguia also has a solid chin and he’s going to have to open things up at some point in this fight and not try to outbox Alvarez. I like Munguia’s chances of a win here but it’s all going to come down to his tactics and mental fortitude.

Munguia has the power and aggressiveness needed to win.

Play: Munguia +375 @

Check out my recent boxing betting picks to see my current form.

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