Mario Barrios vs Manny Pacquiao Betting Odds and Prediction

By Boxing

Mario Barrios vs Manny Pacquiao Preview July 19th, 2025

Ring legend Manny Pacquiao of the Philippines returns to action after a four-year absence on Saturday, July 19th when he challenges former WBA Super Lightweight Champion and current WBC Welterweight Beltholder Mario Barrios of San Antonio, Texas. The 12-rounder from Las Vegas, Nevada can be seen live in most nations on Prime Video pay-per-view. Barrios defended the title via a draw with Abel Ramos in his last outing in November. He defended the interim belt with a unanimous decision over Fabian Andres Maidana of Argentina six months earlier after winning it in September, 2023 via a wide unanimous decision over former world champion Yordenis Ugas. Pacquiao hasn’t fought since August, 2021 when he dropped a 12-round unanimous decision to Ugas.

Barrios vs Pacquiao Betting Odds

Here are the betting odds from online sportsbook BetOnline.ag (full review here).

  • Manny Pacquiao +254
  • Mario Barrios -350

My Pick

Pacquiao is now 46 years old and will climb through the ropes with a record of 62-8-2 with 39 Kos. He was an excellent boxer with fine skills and speed, but his power hasn’t been evident for quite some time. His last stoppage came in the seventh round against Lucas Matthysse in 2018 and it may be hard to believe but his previous KO came eight years earlier when he stopped Miguel Cotto in the 12th round in 2009. Still, he did manage to drop Keith Thurman in the first round in his split decision win in 2019 and overall, 63 per cent of Pacquiao’s career wins been by stoppage. He certainly can’t depend on his power to be the difference maker anymore though.

Pacquiao’s chin has held up well since Juan Manuel Marquez landed the perfect punch on him in the sixth round back in December, 2012, but he’s been stopped in three of his eight career losses. Since he’s been on the canvas a few times during his career he needs to keep his focus at all times and make sure he doesn’t leave himself wide open for a Barrios power shot. His key to winning this fight will be his speed and chin as he’ll need to strike quickly and move out of range.

Pacquiao stands just over 5-feet-5-inches tall and owns a 67-inch reach. He’s boxed 498 rounds since turning pro in 1995 and possesses a wealth of big-fight experience against the best in the world after winning world titles in eight different weight classes. Pacquiao has simply faced all the top boxers of his era and has lost just eight times; to Rustico Torrecampo, Boonsai Sangsurat, Erik Morales, Timothy Bradley, Juan Manuel Marquez, Floyd Mayweather Jr, Jeff Horn and Yordenis Ugas.

He was stopped by Torrecampo in 1996, Sangsurat in 1999 and Marquez in 2012 and his draws came against Agapito Sanchez in 2001 and Marquez in 2004. Pacquiao avenged his losses to Morales, Bradley and Marquez by beating them each twice. He’s also beaten the likes of Marco Antonio Barrera, Ricky Hatton, David Diaz, Oscar De La Hoya, Joshua Clottey, Antonio Margarito, Shane Mosley, Brandon Rios, Chris Algieri, Jessie Vargas, Adrien Broner and Keith Thurman.

A good number of his past opponents were current, former or future world champions and like Pacquiao, could end up in the Boxing Hall of Fame. And this is what makes him a boxing legend. Pacquiao is fleet of foot with great hand speed and controls most fights with his right jab, stinging left hand and lightning-quick combinations. After reportedly going 60-4 as an amateur, he won several regional and minor titles as well as world titles at flyweight, super bantamweight, featherweight, super featherweight, lightweight, junior welterweight, welterweight and junior middleweight.

Pacquiao has also captured Ring Magazine Titles at featherweight, junior lightweight and junior welterweight as well as Lineal Titles at flyweight, featherweight, junior lightweight, junior welterweight and welterweight. His record in world title fights stands at 17-4-2 with 8 Kos and has gone 25-6-2 with 11 Kos against former, current, and future world champions. He also owns several other boxing records and milestones and is the only boxer to hold a world title in four different decades.

The 30-year-old Barrios enters the ring with a mark of 29-2-1 with 18 Ko’s. He turned pro in 2013 following his amateur career and has 198 rounds of experience under his belt. He won the vacant WBA Super Lightweight Crown in September, 2019 when he beat Batyr Akhmedov by unanimous decision after dropping him in the fourth and 12th rounds. He then stopped Ryan Karl in the sixth round in his first title defence and lost his belt to Gervonta Davis when he was stopped in the 11th round of a competitive bout in June, 2021.

Then just eight months later he suffered his second defeat when he dropped a 12-round unanimous decision to former world champion Keith Thurman. Barrios captured the vacant WBA Inter-Continental Welterweight Title in July, 2018 by stopping Jose Roman after eight rounds and in February, 2023 he halted Jovane Santiago in the eighth round to take the WBC Continental Americas Welterweight Crown. He’s listed as six-feet-tall with a 71-inch reach so has a 6.5-inch height advantage on Pacquiao as well as a four-inch edge in reach.

Barrios carries good power in his hands as 62.1 per cent of his wins have come by stoppage but he’s halted just one of his last six opponents. He hadn’t really taken on many legitimate top contenders until meeting Davis when he took a step up in class but he handled himself pretty well in that fight. He took a bit of a risk by moving up to welterweight to take on Thurman but did okay in that contest too. Barrios has also beaten Yardley Cruz, Jose Luis Rodriguez, Richard Zamora and Juan Jose Velasco. He also possesses good speed and will need to use his effective jab to have success against Pacquiao.

Prediction…

Barrios has the edge in height and reach and is also 16 years younger than Pacquiao. Of course, Pacquiao has the edge in experience and has faced tougher opposition over the years. It’s tough to come back at the age of 46 after fighting just twice in the past six years. Boxers such as George Foreman and Bernard Hopkins were world champions in their mid-40’s but neither took four years off and then stepped back into the ring for an immediate title shot. They were both active for years before doing so. Barrios last fight was a war against Ramos though as Ramos was down in the second round and Barrios was dropped in the sixth. It’s hard to say what that brutal fight took out of Barrios but it also proved what a warrior he is. This could be a hard-fought, close fight but Pacquiao will have to be at his absolute best to pull out a win here. It’s unlikely to happen though as Father Time has probably caught up with him.

Pacquiao’s power and skills have diminished at the age of 46

Play Barrios -350 @ BetOnline.ag

Check out my recent boxing betting picks to see my current form.


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