Alexandro Santiago vs Junto Nakatani Betting Odds and Prediction

By Boxing

Alexandro Santiago vs Junto Nakatani Preview February 24th, 2024

WBC Bantamweight champion Alexandro Santiago of Mexico will be defending his belt for the first time when he takes on unbeaten former WBO Flyweight and Super Flyweight Champion Junto Nakatani of Japan over in Tokyo this Saturday, February 24th. Santiago won the vacant title in July with a unanimous decision over former world champion and future Hall of Famer Nonito Donaire. Nakatani last saw action in September and beat Argi Cortes via a wide unanimous decision. He’s now moving up in weight again and looking for a world title in his third weight class. The 12-rounder can be seen live in America on ESPN+ with the card getting underway at about 4 am ET.

Santiago vs Nakatani Betting Odds

Here are the betting odds from online sportsbook (full review here).

  • Alexandro Santiago +550
  • Junto Nakatani -900

My Pick

The 28-year-old Santiago climbs through the ropes with a mark of 28-3-5 with 14 Ko’s and has gone a total of 217 rounds since turning pro in 2012. He stands just over 5-feet-2-inches tall with a 65.5-inch wingspan. When it comes to power, he’s not really a big threat as 50 per cent of his wins have come by knockout and he’s stopped just three of his last eight opponents. Santiago likes to apply a lot of pressure though while firing off his jab and combinations and has a nice overhand right and left hook.

His three defeats came at the hands of Hector Flores Calixto by six-round unanimous decision in 2013 after being dropped in the first round; to Johnny Michel Garcia by six-round split decision in 2014 and to Gary Antonio Russell by 10-round majority decision in 2021. His five draws were: four rounds against Hector Flores Calixto in 2013; 10 rounds against Antonio Nieves in 2016; eight rounds against Jose Martinez-Mercado in 2016 and 10 rounds against Martinez-Mercado in a rematch in 2018 for the WBO NABO Super Flyweight Title and 12 rounds against Jerwin Ancajas in 2018 in a shot at the IBF Super Flyweight Title.

This means Santiago has lost just one of his last 25 fights and that was the majority decision to Russell in 2021. He won the vacant WBC International Bantamweight Title in 2019 when he stopped Roberto Cantu in the eighth round and captured the vacant Mexican Super Bantamweight Belt in July, 2022 with a 10-round unanimous decision over David Carmona. He also has wins over Samuel Medina, Alfredo Mejia Vargas, Andres Guzman and Juan Ramirez Marquez.

The 26-year-old Nakatani is a southpaw who already boasts a perfect record of 26-0 with 18 Ko’s. He’s boxed 130 rounds since making his pro debut in 2015 and won the vacant Japanese Flyweight title in 2019 when he stopped Naoki Mochizuki in the ninth round. The former champion has displayed plenty of power up until now as 73.1 per cent of his wins have come by knockout, including seven of his last nine.

Nakatani measures just over 5-feet-7-inches tall with a 67-inch reach which fives him a five-inch edge in height and 1.5-inch reach advantage on Santiago. He stopped former world champion Milan Melindo of the Philippines in the sixth round in October, 2019 and then won the the vacant WBO Flyweight Title in November, 2020 with an eighth-round stoppage over Giemel Magramo. He stopped Angel Acosta in the fourth round in his first defence and then halted Ryota Yamauchi in eight rounds before moving up in weight against Francisco Rodriguez in November, 2022 and taking a 10-round unanimous decision.

Nakatani then fought in last May and stopped Andrew Moloney for the vacant WBO Super Flyweight Title with what most experts considered to be the knockout of the year. As a pro, Nakatani also won the vacant Japanese Flyweight Title in February, 2019. He’ll be aiming for his third world title in different eight classes this weekend against Santiago.


Santiago gives up a lot of height and a slight reach advantage to Nakatani and will need to work his way inside to be effective. He’s a sturdy boxer with enough power to cause some damage but lacks Nakatani’s overall boxing ability and power. Nakatani is also fighting at home but this should be a close fight for the most part as Santiago is on a bit of a roll with one loss in his last 25 fights and has never been stopped. I’m expecting Nakatani to use his size advantage though to outbox the champion and leave the ring with another world title, but he may have to go the distance to do it.

Nakatani’s size, power and skills should do the trick.

Play: Nakatani -900 @

Check out my recent boxing betting picks to see my current form.

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